BY ROB

After a two week stint away from home the Raiders return to Bruce atop the ladder, having secured two hard-fought wins against teams that were desperate to keep their respective seasons alive. Round 18 sees Canberra once again sampling another flavour from the logjam choccy box as they take on the Dragons.

Despite playing a string of teams outside the 8 the Raiders are consistently running into sides just as they start discovering some type of form: the Tigers found a burst of energy in their second half against the Milk, whilst the Knights were hoping to convert their recent 2-1 record into 3-1. On both occasions Canberra managed to stave off their opposition with some enthusiastic scrambling defence.

They’ll need more of the same against the Dragons. The Red V made a flying start against a floundering Eels side last week, running in five tries before they themselves had to fend off a spirited comeback attempt by Parramatta in the second half.

Both sides have lost key players to Origin duties this week. Canberra must go without the bench firepower of Big Papa and the herculean efforts of Hudson Young, while the Dragons will have to get by without Holmes on the wing. Papa’s shock call up to the Qld camp has seen a reshuffle for the Raiders: Horsburgh becomes a starting prop alongside Tapine, whilst Trey Mooney makes a return to first grade alongside Mariota and Martin (the Noah version) on the bench.

Mooney needs to make the most of this opportunity. With the NSW Cup side struggling in 2025 and Mariota now a solid fixture of the Raiders top 17 there may be few opportunities for him in the top grade this season.

Conditions for Saturday should be cool and dry, meaning a fast-paced match is very likely. The Raiders will need to be keenly aware of the Dragons line break abilities (fifth most in the NRL). St George punched several holes through the flimsy defence of the Eels in their round 17 clash.

The line break sentiment works in the other direction. The Dragons will be keeping extra watch on the likes of Weekes and Savage, both of whom can punish a side if first-line defenders click off at the wrong moment. Weekes in particular becomes more lethal with each game – his ability to scythe into the line and then hit the boosters often leaves opponents clutching at thin air.

The Raiders have an excellent opportunity to solidify their hold on 1st place this round. A healthy win against the Dragons followed by their second bye in round 19. Following that they face reinforced Eels in Canberra before hosting the Knights in round 21.

Having skimmed through the team stats on NRL.com I was intrigued to see that the Dragons are arguably one of the worst performing sides this season. On nearly every positive attacking/offensive metric (outside of line breaks) they’re almost always grouped in the bottom 4, if not outright last. Conversely on negative play stats such as errors and penalties conceded they’re quite restrained. This is somewhat puzzling until you consider one simple but vital piece of information: possession.

With the exception of anomalous teams such as the Wahs, Sharks, Manly and the Tigers, a team’s percentage of possession roughly correlates to whether or not they currently reside in the top 8. It’s this particular stat which explains why the Dragons are doing so well on keeping negative plays to a minimum – they simply don’t have enough possession to make more mistakes.

The Raiders meanwhile are doing pretty well at holding onto the Steeden. Even when they do turn it over they’re composed and calm enough to grind away until they get it back and resume pounding on the opposition’s middle defences.

If Fogarty can get his kicking game on expect lots of corner kicks that pin the Red V in their own half and force them to work it (strategy trope bingo!) If everything’s going to plan then Pattie will take the field around the 60th minute, bringing the visitors a whole new set of problems.

In Conclusion

Only fools assume the outcome of an NRL game before the first whistle but the signs definitely lean the Green Machine’s way. They do need to show they can get it done without Huddo and Papa, but if they do they’ll have essentially earned a 4 comp point win.

Raiders by 12+!

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