BY DAN

It’s been an exciting few days on the recruitment front. Canberra have gone from having signed a backup halfback for next year, to having not actually done that. Now they’re potentially dating two halfbacks at the same time. How 90s sitcom of them.

Will they? Won’t they? Just what is going on?

Let’s start with the halfback side of things. Jake Clifford was where we’d landed Thursday morning, with Triple M reporting that he’d signed. Then an actual journalist got involved (thank god for Polky), revealing that Jake Clifford was just one among four players that Ricky Stuart said he’d been talking too. That list included Lachlan Illias, though he’s contracted for 2026 at the Dragons. It’s worth noting that Stuart isn’t actually quoted as saying they’re interested in Illias. I presume that’s because Illias’ contract situation would make that expression verge into questions around tampering. Ah sweet backgrounding. Gus could learn a thing or two about that.

Without knowing the other two on the list, the choice here seems to be between performance now, and the dwindling hope of maximising upside. Clifford is 27, and it’s pretty well established who he is: i.e. a pretty good backup, with the ability to drive a first grade car around the ground and cover both halves positions at a pinch.

Illias is 25, and once had higher hopes pinned on him. The hope that he’d be more than that is surely dwindling, but there is still the flicker of a flame that he might be able to pay out on the potential that was identified in him. Given Canberra are already placing a bet on the upside of Ethan Sanders, it makes sense to take certainty over hope in the case of his backup. That would make Clifford more appealing if that was the priority.

I think we can take Stuart’s comments that a deal is not done at face value. He rarely goes on the record, and the fact he went to the length of identifying that other players were being considered means that either a deal isn’t done or he doesn’t want to say a deal is done. What is less clear is why.

There’s a few interpretations here. The one I find most convincing is that an agreement with Clifford on intent but not the detail. In this scenario the Raiders want to keep it plausible they’ll go in another direction should Clifford’s management push for too much of an investment. Illias’ availability or otherwise is unlikely to be addressed until the off-season. This allows they can leverage the ‘walk away’ factor in negotiations with Clifford until a team-friendly deal is sorted.

There’s other factors here too. Maybe they do actually like Illias. That seems insane to me but I’m not a doctor football talking guy. Maybe they are also trying to manage sensitivities with Adam Cook. I think it’s been clear that they’re ‘all in’ on Sanders, so I’m not worried there. But Cook is likely to be wondering where he stands if yet another journeyman halfback is given the backup job ahead of him. The Raiders could be trying to resolve his contract status (currently on a training deal) before landing the big rock in his pathway.

Given someone is in Triple M’s ear saying a deal is done, I would lean to an agreement is more likely than not. That information usually comes straight from an agent. Those agents have agendas, but the commission of having a deal in the NRL (as opposed to much less lucrative Super League deal) is prime amongst them.

But because of the circumstances of this negotiation, and what we know so far, it seems we’re going to have to wait to find out.

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