BY DAN

The Canberra Raiders have received the worst possible outcome for Matty Nicholson, with the Canberra Times confirming that he would undergo surgery for his fractured fibula and will be out for 12 weeks.

We had a hint this was coming almost as soon as the rumours emerged. Canberra have escaped the problems of injury this year, and it’s been a big part of their relative success. It’s not that it has to balance out. At some point the Rabbitohs collective hamstring problems have to be a more than just a fluke of variation. But in a contact sport there’s an inevitable toll that has to be paid to the dark lord of health. Before today Canberra had almost lost as many games to suspension as injury.

That balance will obviously shift with Nicholson’s elongated absence. As we’ve noted it’s a shame because he’s been immaculate in his rookie season. His defence has been powerful and sustained through 80 minutes. A 21 year old backrower with a 97% tackle efficiency, five tries and a host of line break assists? These do not grow on trees.

He’s been such a revelation for Canberra’s right side attack. His hard running and excellent hands have given a right edge that used to be ‘Timoko or bust’ a much more interesting and variable look.

The impact has been plain to see. The Raiders scored only 32 per cent of its tries on the right side between 2019 and 2024. That’s up to 42 per cent this year. It was similarly high last year, but 40 odd per cent of the least tries in the comp v 40 per cent of the most is a very different prospect. The point is the right side attack has been vastly improved, and Nicholson has been a big reason why.

Not only will Nicholson be missed out right, but it has permeations beyond. His presence has also allowed Zac Hosking the chance to play lock, which has added a vigour to the rotations through the middle. Hosking and Ata Mariota have been freed up to be fast and Canberra have flourished because of it. If Hosking is brought in as cover for Mariota’s job, and Canberra’s success through the middle forty of the game becomes more problematic.

Finding a fix to this weakens the Raiders somewhere. Moving Hosking will retain the skillset and likely the output of that right edge, but it takes from the middle rotation. Simi Sasagi can offer a Temu Hosko vibe, but like most things from Temu it looks right but won’t be exactly the same. Sasagi’s defence through the middle is enthusiastic, but he can’t withstand the load for as long as Zac. Corey Horsburgh’s return will mean that’s not so necessary – both he and Morgan Smithies can play big minutes – but that too potentially weakens both Corey and Morgan’s impact in their stints. Putting Simi on the edge is brave for a side already struggling defensively on the right side (over 51 percent of tries conceded on that side of the field).

The final option of Noah Martin is one that would be both exciting and terrifying. “What’s in the box” is usually something that entices, and Martin is no exception. We’ve been waiting for his arrival for a while, since Stick foreshadowed his first grade debut likely occurring this season in announcing he would go to Vegas for round one. Whether he’s ready is a different question. The Cup team’s form has been so parabolic that it’s hard to take much on other than he looks powerful and impressively agile for a person carved from the Penis Owl.

Regardless of who is named today, in all likelihood all three will get used at some point this season. That’s the challenge of injuries like this. You have to go in the bag and find solutions. Each time you have to do that it reduces the options you have. Other problems will come requiring other solutions and that might change how this one is solved. That’s only going to made more likely by origin in a few weeks.

This is a shit sandwich. It’s a long term injury to a hard-to-fill position that has ramifications beyond just the input. But good teams shovel these delights down and get on with business. If Canberra pass this test they’ll be even stronger come finals should they get there. It’s not a silver lining, but it’ll have to do for now.

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