BY DAN

When Matty ‘Nice’ Nicholson limped off the field on Saturday afternoon it felt like a fitting end to a dispiriting second half. Here was a pure boy, our delightful present from England, our hard working backrower who had proven such a bonus this year, hurt. What a cruel event.

It’s not yet clear how long it will be. All we have from Ricky Stuart so far is:

His weight-bearing isn’t good. We just hope it’s not a bad syndesmosis, hopefully not out for too long.

We also have this from David Polkinghorne over at the Canberra Times.

That takes some explaining. As you know, Syndesmosis is actually a type of joint, not an injury to a specific place. I’m not a doctor, and don’t even play one on TV, but what Sticky and Polky are likely referring to is a high ankle sprain, which for reasons I’m sure NRL Physio can explain to you, has become synonymous with syndesmosis (say that five times fast). In short in the ankle the syndesmosis is formed by the tibia and fibula bones. It’s one thing to strain the muscles in the joint. It’s a whole other thing to break one of the bones around it (though depressingly common).

*If* it is a high ankle sprain with a fracture it will be a while before Matty Nice is back. Not in a season ending sense, but more likely a significant number of weeks. Worst case scenario would be around 12 weeks (based on similar cases, not any knowledge I have), which would have Nicholson not returning until the last few weeks of the season. Best case scenario would just be no fracture a couple weeks of rest and recuperation. We won’t know until tomorrow. For reference NRL Physio says 6-8 for a bad strain, 3-4 for minimal. No word from him on fracture.

Not this injury, but injuries more generally, are to be expected. So far this season the Raiders have managed to avoid that particular monster. They’ve only used 20 players, far and away the least in the NRL (the Cowboys have used the next least with 22, the Eels have used 29). Canberra have multiple interesting options. But each of them come with a risk and a sacrifice they Raiders will have to reckon with.

If this outcome is worst case scenario, it’s a major loss for the Milk. Nicholson’s steady and sometimes brilliant presence has been a massive benefit to the Raiders this season. He’s provided solid defence and runs a barnstorming line. He’s also got a brilliant pair of hands, as exemplified by his inside ball to Kaeo Weekes on the match-tying-try against the Storm, or the quick hands to get Matt Timoko into space for the Xavier Savage try against the Dogs.

His performance has been exemplary, especially for a first year player. This has allowed Canberra such flexibility in how they’ve operated. Zac Hosking has been able to play as a change-of-pace lock through the middle of the game, forming a brilliant bench mob with Ata Mariota and Josh Papalii. However they solve this problem Nice’s absence will glaring, and potential weaken not one, but two positions.

The most obvious solution is to bring Hosking into the backrow. The Milk have thrived with him on the field, and as the starter there in round one he’s proven himself capable. I’m a little nervous about his body too, but I’ve not question he could do the job well. That means the Raiders would barely skip a beat, and perhaps even add a bit of pace on the edge.

This approach would mean that their middle rotation loses a bit of its dynamism. As we’ve noted in the Review, some of the problems Canberra faced in the Bulldogs collapse came from losing a bit of lustre to their middle rotation with Hosking starting. Papa and Mariota were great, but the reluctance of Stick to use Simi Sasagi in quite the same role – he only played 14 minutes – or with the same impact meant they didn’t have that pace option through the middle thirty of the game.

Canberra, as you might be aware, lost their way in the second half, and four of the Dogs six tries came with Hosking on the bench. What’s more, being able to shift Hosking to the edge, or in some other emergency-services role, was not available to the Milk because Zac had already played 45 minutes straight in the middle.

They could put Simi on the edge and move Hosking back into the middle rotation, presuming Corey Horsburgh recovers from his concussion. Simi’s play improves on a week to week basis and he’s far beyond the player that leaked 18 missed tackles over two weeks (I made that up but the numbers were something like that) starting in the position last year. He would be facing Beau Fermor, at least in week one of the trial. While Beau can’t tackle (not that he’s not allowed to, he’s just not a fan), he’s dynamic attacking presence, and he and AJ Brimson running hard at Simi would be a risk and a test.

The other more left field option would be to bring Noah Martin into the side. Martin is made of cement and looks like he shots beer cans and does bare-hand demolitions as a side hustle. He’s been the single ray of light in an otherwise dark NSW Cup universe, working hard and never letting his side down. Stuart took him to Vegas on the basis he expected him to play first grade this season. Well, this week is this season. Martin will be a part of the side at some point in the future. I’m no development doctor, so I can’t tell you if he’s ready. He’s better than Cup though, which seems like an important part of the story.

The length of time Nicholson will be out may make it tempting to give the young fella a run. Test him at the spot and see how he goes before you fall back to Hosking or Simi. Given the absolute chaos wrought by the Dogs on Canberra’s edges on the weekend it seems more likely that the Raiders will look to safety before promise. That would lead to Hosking getting the run, and Simi taking his role as a bench utility. This is how it operated last weekend too.

Let’s hope it works out better.

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