The Fifty Game Theory

BY DAN

Ricky Stuart is fond of saying it takes fifty games to get your bearings of the level in NRL football. Ata Mariota is in the process of proving him right.

Sticky is fond of being circumspect of the process of development. Time is needed to learn the game, what is required, and how to use your Mal-given abilities to consistently succeed at the highest level. 50 games is generally what he says it will take to become a fully formed football, but he’s also put the number as low as 40, and as high as 75. Reps. Ten thousand hours. However you want to characterise it, Stuart believes it’s rare for a player to come into the top level fully formed.

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As anyone with two eyes and passion for late footwork will tell you, Ata Mariota is hitting his stride. He’s formed a formidable bench mob with Zac Hosking. In the last three weeks the game has turned with his and Hosking’s arrival on the field. Ata has only played 29, 21 and 28 minutes during this time he’s averaging over 90 metres a game, the best part of 35 post contact. That’s played a big part in Canberra overcoming deficits of 16, 18, and 14. In fact in all three games much of the deficit reduction occurred specifically during the time he was on the field.

It’s no coincidence that Ata will be playing his 50th game this weekend. Our feelings for Ata have been clear even before we saw him on the NRL field in 2022 against Penrith. He was the young talent that came to the club under the auspicious gaze of Peter Mulholland. He was elevated to the top squad to ensure his development during the Covid bubble, and quickly became a fan favourite for being our celebrating avatar in the crowdless games (something he’s carried into his first grade career).

He was unquestionably a talent, drawing obvious comparisons to Josh Papalii. The late footwork. The unfathomable mixture of size and athleticism, both the club’s deadlift leader and also able to stunt other middle forwards with both straight line pace and a step so hot Ini Kamoze wrote a song about him.

But despite this pieces, the whole tale had never been told. The 2023 final against the Knights was his best all round performance before this year. He cracked 190 metres on the ground, putting in work as the Raiders middle lost troops like it was the last episode of Blackadder Goes Forth (they’ll never expect it for the 18th time). It was there. Almost.

Fits and starts and consolidation of a path followed. Despite the moments like the last game of 2023, he wasn’t able to consistently dominate like that over 2024. It looked right, but the impact felt tantalisingly out of reach. Almost a prop knife – it convinced it how it was put together but it wasn’t drawing blood.

It probably didn’t help that he was switching between roles, shuffling between the middle and covering for the club’s lack of depth at edge back-row. He was a victim of his own talent there. Rarely do you find a middle with his agility. Our expectations, and paradoxically our familiarity with him also played games with our patience. We’d see Ata come from ‘Rona era ball-boy to first grade monster. It seemed we needed reminding he was still in his early 20s. The plaudits along the way meant that we were watching someone that looked fully formed but wasn’t fully developed.

And then this year that has changed. Portraying as a moment that things have clicked seems overly-simplistic. His raw numbers don’t seem to have changed, and one might even argue his tackle-busts are down. But what is happening on the field seems obvious to me. He’s quicker at the line, finding the seams between the defence and winning contact in a way he hasn’t previously. He looks fast – like most of the team do – but it’s more pointed, more impactful.

He’s been pointed in his carries. Able to bend the line, poke his head through. Attack the inside shoulders of defenders at pace, creating havoc in the defensive line. When he hit a line off Jamal Fogarty’s shoulder against the ‘Phins, the resulting popped pass and try for Kaeo Weekes wasn’t taken as a revelation. But matter of fact. This is what he can do.

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It’s fifty games for Ata this weekend and he’s only just working out what he is. It’d be cute here to say Stick is right – fifty games and he’s fully formed. But it’s a testament to Ata that he’s not. There’s more development in him. More improvement. At 23 he’s already a critical part of a successful team. If this is how good he is at fifty, I can’t wait for the next milestone.

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