BY DAN

The Canberra Raiders seem to have accepted that Jamal Fogarty is likely to leave. With this information they have doubled down on their attempted retention of in-form rake Tom Starling.

There are multiple suggestions that they will have more luck this time around. The most ‘reputable’ of these comes from Michael Carayannis at the Tele, who reported that the Raiders have ‘stepped up their efforts’ to keep Tom Starling in town, offering him a two-year deal of unreported value.

Will this be enough? As we noted the general vibe here is positive. That’s surprising given most of the ‘push’ factors that are sending Jamal Fogarty to Manly exist for Tommy too, and are arguably stronger. Tommy also has a young star coming into his spot, and Owen Pattie appears much further along than Ethan Sanders. Starling’s experience is highly valued, but the club has a similarly experienced back up in Jayden Brailey coming to the club next year. The appeal of signing a new deal on the back of career-best form, only to find yourself at risk of playing Cup footy seems unappealing. Tommy is just 26, arguably entering his prime, and won’t be keen on limiting his playing time, and earning potential, to watch someone else play footy.

The ‘pull’ factors will remain strong too. Hooker is a position with limited depth across the competition, and while the Raiders have clearly identified it as a position they want depth in, so will many other clubs. There is half a competition of teams who would love to have Tommy playing 60 minutes a game for them. With Owen Pattie’s emergence, Starling is likely to get diminishing minutes over the coming years, even if he maintains his spot in the starting 17. Even if it’s not Souths as we thought in the off-season, there is a team out there that wants him to be their starter.

So while Canberra meeting with his management is a positive move (and at least a step from Stick seeking to circumvent them as he noted earlier in the season), we won’t be penciling him for 2026 just yet. If if there hasn’t been an announced dance partner since the off-season rumours that we was leaving for Souths, it just beggars belief there wouldn’t be sufficient demand for his service that it would make Canberra’s battle too hard.

Having said that, all the people out there know more than us. Like we like to reiterate, for the most part we are equipped with the same information you are, just a bit more obsession about jotting down these thoughts like it’ll save me. It puts us in the breeze on occasion. This year we’ve fallen for the Mole, Jimmy Hoops and a few others thinking Leo Thompson or Jamal Fogarty were down deals to be in Canberra. But if the people that know are leaning towards Tommy staying despite the circumstantial evidence to the contrary, who are we to argue? Maybe he just like Huddo *that* much.

If Canberra were to get Tom Starling I would be ecstatic. While it would require a personal sacrifice from Tommy beyond what he does to his small body (for a footy player) each week, it would unquestionably be a boon for the Milk. A two year deal, the same as Brailey, would allow the Milk the luxury of depth at arguably the most important position on the field. They’d have a compliment to Owen Pattie, and when the minutes shift the perfect player to bring on during the middle 30-40 of the game to run tiring defences ragged.

It would not be a roster issue, unless the view is that Shaun Packer is further along than he appears. Three hookers is how many you need in a top 30, and two year deals for Starling and Brailey would almost be the perfect amount of time to pick and choose between the one, the other, or the next generation, in time for renegotiation. Starling may never be as good as he is this year, but his floor is sufficiently high that the Raiders wouldn’t be hamstrung by signing him at the top of his value.

Canberra is approaching Tommy. That’s a good idea and a positive step. It may be indicative of more, but we’re not privy to that information. The circumstances around his career make it a long shot, but we’re still hopeful they can keep him.

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