BY DAN

Jamal Fogarty is reportedly set to take a deal with the Manly Sea-Eagles from next season. The years – three of them – and the money – 700k per season – proved too much for Canberra to match. He is the first victim of Canberra’s youth focus, and the first salve to Manly’s DCE-based wounds.

It’s an outcome we’ve been sweating on for a while. The process has been topsy turvy, swinging from an assumption his option would be picked up, to the assumption that he was gone, back to hope when Canberra upped their offer. But it seems the structural causes that led to Fogarty being on the market proved too strong. He wants to make the most of his last big contact. The Raiders can’t afford to pay him to stand in Ethan Sanders way. The pain is inevitable and the hope sustains.

It’s a shame. Fogarty came to the club after a period of chaos, a replacement for when George Williams proved unwilling to stay long term in Australia. He proved a stabilising force exactly when the club needed it, a cool head in a room with hot tempers. He was the adult in the room, and now his departure leaves a vacuum, both in his role in the side, and his equanimity as a leader. He’s had plenty of good moments, and each season has taken a bigger role in the attack to Canberra’s benefit. His right boot at times has been such a saviour you could build a church around it.

This is unquestionably a loss for the Raiders for those reasons, but also for their development approach. As we’ve highlighted recently they’ve been keen to focus on incremental transition to a young cadre of talent, rather than a complete revolution. The hope had been to bring Ethan Sanders through slowly, allowing him to dip his toes in around Fogarty, rather than having to be his substitute.

Holding on to Fogarty gave them the capacity to have their cake and eat it too. Now they’re just hoping a teenager 21 year old can solve their cake-based needs. Sanders has a lot of charms. He’s unquestionably a better runner, and in lower grades has shown plenty of organisational and creative ability. But if Fogarty has repeatedly shown us, there’s no substitute for a mature mind and a clear idea of your abilities and their limits.

Now everything Sanders does exists in direct comparison to his predecessor. He’ll have to learn in front of the bright lights, and let us see all the bumps and warts that emerge along the way. That’s an emotional test for him. He’s done nothing but suggest he’s up to it, but everyone’s a leader until a train masquerading as a backrower is bearing down on you. Or a ‘journalist’ on a panel show with an axe to grind.

It may hamstring the side’s potential in the short term. After a few months of this season Canberra have emerged with more poke than expected. I hope this team won’t miss a beat, but given the centrality of Fogarty to not just their play, but their collective emotional well-being, it’s not hard to think this could have an impact.

If direct comparisons to their predecessor is a problem, then Fogarty will face similar issues in his new home. Manly have had one of the best halfbacks in the history of the NRL, one blessed with a similar boot to Fogarty but more athletic ability. Fogarty can’t replicate what DCE has done for the best part of fifteen years. But he can steer them around, and kick some monster dingers.

Will that be enough? Will the lack of threat Jamal provides to the line have any impact on Haumole Olakau’atu? What happens to Luke Brooks form when he becomes the key creator (non-boot edition) in the attack? We’ve seen that before. What happens on shifts when teams load up on Tommy T’s busted legs because they’re not worried about Fogarty or Brooks? Manly don’t have the pack that Fogarty thrives behind. Will that matter? It has to work because the Sea-Eagles have made an outsized bet, not without risk. It feels like an expensive way to tread water.

I’m banking on Fogarty being a success and I’m happy that he’s managed to land this deal. $2.1m over what are likely the last three years of his career will make a huge difference for a man that didn’t start regularly playing top line footy until he was 27, and hasn’t had many big deals since. This isn’t quite star money, but it’s a good nest egg for neither a star nor a role player. Fogarty seems like a great dude, and sometimes it’s good to see great dudes getting what they deserve, even if it hurts a little on the way through. Nice guys don’t always finish last.

A final caveat. The reports here sound they’re straight from Manly and Jamal’s management. So while they’re with an agenda, and while a deal isn’t finalised, I’m not hopeful this will change. As we’ve said all along, the money and years will be bigger outside Canberra. Sometimes that’s all it takes.

Go well Jamal. I’m sad you’re leaving and wish only the best for you. The Raiders’ trajectory without you will be bumpy and they’ll immediately be worse without you. But that’s the deal here. This isn’t about being good. This is about finding something more, something we haven’t felt too often recently. I’m sad Jamal won’t be part of it, but perhaps the misfortune that we do not like leads to the destiny that we are desperate for.

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