BY DAN

Canberra was only going to go one year. Then Manly went two. So Canberra went two years. So Manly went three, with more money to pile into the years. Where does this all end?

Jamal Fogarty is a wanted man. The Canberra Raiders want him to make the transition to the new era as smooth as possible. Manly want him because he’s a very good footballer, and also because they’re currently behaving like a recently-dumped fella six beers and two rejections deep. Last week the Raiders got off their long-held principle of only offering a one year deal, to offer two. Manly have reportedly offered three, at $700k per year. Both numbers are probably more than Canberra can afford.

The report in today’s Daily Telegraph was almost certainly leaked by Fogarty’s manager. It was practically public negotiations, using the tabloid as a pathway to make the pitch for just how in demand Fogarty is. The article didn’t just outline Manly’s interest, but also suggested the interest of additional parties without pointing to whom. That may be real, or unnamed because the intent is to have 15 other teams pointing at each other and wondering if they need to make a bid too.

It reflects the challenging circumstances that the Raiders are in. Fogarty’s management’s preferred communication pathway with the Milk is via the Tele. Partly that’s to drum up the noise from other teams. It’s easier to get a better deal if everyone knows where the line is.

But it’s also possible it’s because of the challenging relationship Stick and Jamal’s manager. Tas Bartlett, seem to have. During these negotiations Stuart has admitted he has been focused on Jamal, rather than his management. If we can speculate, it’s because that manager has been pushing Fogarty to where the money and years are. He’s been willing to go to clubs and get their best offer. It’s kept pushing the cost of keeping Fogarty higher, potentially beyond Canberra’s capacity.

The Raiders have instead sought to make a pitch based on more than money; on football, on stability, on finishing what you started and leaving a mark on the next generation. That’s made direct to Jamal. It’s an admirable approach in a sense. But it relies on Fogarty leaving cash on the table when he’s only had a few good deals throughout his career.

The intent is a good old fashioned Raider Raise. That doesn’t disqualify the Milk from keeping Fogarty. As Mike of the Green Machine Podcast rightly pointed out in this weeks episode, if Manly thought they had him they wouldn’t have upped the offer. The problem there isn’t just the Sea-Eagles, but the widening net that might be cast by Fogarty’s management. If the reporting is right, the cash rate is starting to get beyond the Milk’s capacity under the cap. The years too are eating further and further into the next generation. Three years in particularly would take Fog in Canberra beyond the end of Ethan Sanders current deal. That beyond risky. It’d be abandoning the entire revolution they promised this off-season for an extra year of Fogarty.

Canberra can’t readily go for more years and risk Sanders unless they think Fogarty is the difference between winning and losing a premiership in the coming years. That’s a brave bet. Fogarty will be 32 by the time this deal starts, and that paying big money to an ageing half with a noted injury history behind him is a big risk if it also means you lose the halfback you’ve identified as the ten year project beyond that.

As we’ve said previously, as this debate goes on the question is less about money, and more about what Fogarty wants. He’ll get bigger money and more years elsewhere, at Manly or another club. His manager is making sure of that. Canberra are not out of the fight but the arms race is making it hard.

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