BY DAN

The Canberra Raiders have had a successful, but somewhat confusing start to the season. They’re third on the ladder in a competition that feels as stable as the stockmarket. Five wins and two losses should give clarity, but one win required a sixty metre all-hands-on-deck try of the season to grab. Another included a comeback from 16. All that matters is winning baby, but just how good are these Raiders? Five and two could have easily been three and four and nothing but questions. Even after the Titans victory there was a fair argument to make (not by us) that playing that way would beat the worst sides and few else.

Is Canberra just better than the rest, rather than part of the best? If we look beneath the hood we have an equally confusing set of numbers. On the plus ledger the Raiders are sixth in points per game, 4th in post contact metres per game, 4th in tackle breaks, 2nd in offloads and 6th in try assists. It verifies their approach – play fast and agile form the tram tracks in, beat your opposition with power and agility, and then let your brilliant edges beat people one on one (is Hudson Young the best? Probably). Back it up with a defence that has, with the exception of the Manly game’s outcome (but not the first 30 minutes) been pretty functional, and you’ve got a good footy side.

Is it sustainable? Well that’s where the hard bit comes in. They’re currently 16th in total metres, 10th in line breaks, 13th in completions. Is this indicative of a club that is perhaps landing on the fun side of variance? Or is it proof in the pudding that you have to throw a few imperfect punches in order for a good one to land? If you land on the latter I end up confused by the Milks decade long love of not engaging the line. They’re currently last on that metric, as they were in 2024, 2023, and 2019. Since records started in 2013 they’ve never been higher than 11th (2022 and 2017). How do make an elite offence without engaging the line?

As a total aside that number seems to change all over the shop. In 2013 the league leading Bulldogs engaged the line 11.4 times a game. In 2024 the league leading Cows engaged it 31.3 times a game. This year the Panthers are top with 23.6 a game. I am confounded and would love it you could explain it to me.

If the stats are mixed, the eye tests are revealing improvements. The defence has looked strong, the attack fast, playing to the strengths of the edges, able to beat one-on-one defenders across the league. It’s looked more precise, more deliberate, than it has at any point in recent history. As we noted in the Review, the redzone attack, an inconsistent mess at best for some time, has finally revealed hints of change. If that evolution is more than one data point, it becomes added to their predilection from scoring from further down the ground (average try distance before round 7 of 24.4 metres per the Rugby League Eye Test) into something that might be a sustainable offence.

If you’re worried about the mess of mixed signals that Canberra have thrown up, fear not. There’s nothing but tests coming their way. They go home to play the Dolphins, who used to be terrible but won two in a row, including putting 40 straight on the premiership favourites. Then the Raiders play the aforementioned favourites at Magic Round, before coming home to play the Dogs.

That it comes at the back of a busy period of travel only heightens the test. By the end of May they’ll have played more games overseas (2), north of the Tropic of Capricorn (2), in Queensland (3) than they’ll have in Sydney (1). The miles are noteworthy. Not an excuse for subpar performance, but rather a potential exacerbating factor on the challenge.

Everything you want to know about this side will be revealed in this period. Is that offence good? It’ll face the best defence in the competition. Are their defensive improvements sustainable? How’s the best attack in the competition, a flat track and magic in air? Can they keep their heads against teams running with the wind at their backs. Three in a row baby. Nothing but tests.

There’s an upwards trajectory more evident outside this. But for now we remain within the prism of this year. Call it a long trial of their realness. Everything you wanted to know but were afraid to ask. It’ll be fun. Or not.

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