BY DAN

A story has been told about the Canberra Raiders youth movement.

It goes like this. At the end of last season of the Canberra Raiders made a commitment. To go all in on being more than competitive in the future at the expense of today. To be more than a team that punches above its weight, hard, but never with the confidence or consistency to be the main event. That entailed putting a big black chip on their hand before they could tell exactly what it was.

This is true to an extent, and was exciting because not only was it voiced by the coaching staff, but it seemed such an anathema to how he’d operated in the past. Ricky Stuart is known for many things, but embracing youth in all its forms is not one of them. Now that in itself is a bit of an oversimplification. Nic Cotric, Ethan Strange, and even Xavier Savage debuted as neophytes. But the vibe of the take is more true than not. Stuart, by his nature, isn’t the kind to embrace the frustrating risk that comes with youth. Bur here we are, riding into battle with toddlers on Shetlands.

Not so fast.

You’ve seen it in the recruitment discussions around Jamal Fogarty, Tom Starling, and even in the some of the noise around Josh Papalii. Canberra are wanting to bring through the youth, but also not so keen to lean into to it wholeheartedly. As Stick said in the wash up from the Darwin victory:

If you rush these young blokes at an early part of their careers they can go out the back door quicker than they come in, because you blokes wrap them up, they get a lot of positive commentary.

It’s been clear that Stuart sees this process as one of transition. It’s not so much as revolutionary severance of the history of the past, but a slow burn, the machine clunking towards a new setting.

The hope, as Stuart has been saying repeatedly, is to keep Fogarty around to support Ethan Sanders’ progression to the top job. The intent to keep Tom Starling is not because he will be something more than he is – though he has been very good this year. The hope is that Starling acts like a Creasy to Pattie’s Pita. So it’s not quite a full-blown youth movement. It’s a transition.

This approach is laden with risks, as any approach is, and Canberra are choosing the ones they’re most comfortable with. We’ve often noted that selling out for youth is a risky game. If you go all in and put kids all together they feed off each other. There are undoubtedly examples where it’s paid off, but too often it becomes teenagers goading each other into dumber and dumber things. Sometimes you need someone in the room to say ‘maybe don’t jump off the roof’.

By leaning into keeping some old fellas around (title of…) Canberra mitigate these risks but open themselves up to more. Conceptually there’s a risk of not embracing the youth movement fully. You want change, innovation, revolution? You don’t get that my incremental change. You want to break the wheel? You can’t do that by asking nicely. Change is disruptive. Change is painful, and comes with bumps because that’s necessary. Short-changing the process to try and avoid it might mean your just not doing it right.

Of course this approach is likely influenced by Stuart’s own elevation to first grade. He came to Canberra a highly touted prospect fought over by multiple clubs, spent the first half of 1988 in reserve grade backing up the halves that had taken the Raiders to the 1987 decider, and was only elevated to first grade after injuries. Even in 1989 the club kept Ivan Henjak, the player that Stuart eventually replaced in the halves. Henjak played 16 games in all kinds of positions, including game time in two finals games.

This can also be seen in the more material risk of potentially alienating or worse, losing, young players who get frustrated with their lack of progress through the grades. Ethan Sanders will be desperate to get back on the field after his eye-socket injury, but moreso he’ll be keen to get on the first grade field and start his own personal question to prove himself at the level. Canberra are not the only team that have been interested in Sanders, and it will take clear and constant communication from Stick to keep him in the tent (so you know, not talking to him for a season like he did in ’24 with Horse would not be the approach I would recommend). This is a less of a problem for Owen Pattie because he’s already an increasing part of the side.

Stuart will likely remember that he could have taken the bigger money offers of (ew) or Balmain for more immediate pathways to first grade. He no doubt realises that approach worked for him, built a better squad, and ultimately resulted in the formation of one of the greatest rugby league teams to ever walk the earth. That pitch to Sanders of patience at the alter of greatness would be a lot easier to make if that outcome was more certain. But we all make bets in life,

Is this having their cake an eating it too? Or is it just smart organisation? We can all have our views (and my change day to day) but the only way this will be tested is on the field, and not right now. The transition is still happening.

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