BY DAN

The last few weeks was a big period on the recruitment front for the Canberra Raiders. Jayden Brailey has committed to joining the club from Newcastle. Simi Sasagi committed for another season. But the big fish remain undecided. Jamal Fogarty is up in the air. Josh Papalii too. Kai Pearce-Paul might be part of the plan. But what’s going with Tom Starling?

It’s been a bit of a trip with Starling this year. It seemed like he was certainly gone before the season even started. That trail went oddly quiet, leaving us unsure if it had been resolved, put aside, or never even occurred. Then he emerged as a vocal club leader in the pre-season, and in the early rounds has been consistently of quality. Behind a dominant pack he’s been at his best, and all indications is that he’s a good match with emerging rake Owen Pattie. One guy has an immense amount of skill, the other a stunning amount of courage, leadership, and pace. It has all the potential in the world to become such a nice little partnership. But keeping together is a whole other thing.

The likelihood of keeping Starling has no doubt diminished over the last few months. Brailey’s signature brings a veteran presence in the middle of the park that the Raiders would miss without Starling. It also signals to Starling that he can be one of three players fighting for first grade minutes (assuming Packer spends much of next year in Cup). The dearth of good hookers in the competition mean Starling will be in demand, and have options with more permanent paths to first grade elsewhere. His hot start to the season only makes that harder. Why take the risk of playing Cup for the Raiders when you could have a guaranteed starting role somewhere else?

It may seem like nothing is happening on that front but the back and forth of public negotiations has been occurring right in front of our eyes. It started with the offseason noise, and cryptic posting by Starling. A good start to the season (rightly) led to questions about his future, to which Tommy (surprisingly) said the Raiders hadn’t been in contact and that he would leave all that to his manager anyway.

Since then we’ve had a cavalcade of discussions. It’s hard to tell which came first, so let’s note the following all came in the same week. Rumours emerged of interest from Parramatta, North Queensland, and Manly. These all make perfect sense. All need rakes, all have space in their 2026 top 30s to accommodate Tommy.

Canberra’s response was two fold. Firstly to utilise the good cop of Mal Meninga to point out how important he is to the club. As he told Sen Rugby League:

The conversation with him is that if he is playing well there’s no way he’ll lose his position….Brailey’s a different player. The fact is I think you need to have three hookers in your top 30 now

This was interesting for several reasons. It was the first we’ve seen of what Mal’s role might be for the club. Let’s call him the cultural attache. The recruitment consigliere. Reaching out to players that Canberra want to get (or keep in this circumstance) to reiterate why they are valued. It hits different when it’s coming from a walking god. A hand on the back, a finger pointed to Valhalla. Come with me mate, I guarantee it’s worth it. Secondly it seemed to suggest the club sees Brailey as Pattie insurance, not Starling cover. That’s worth remembering.

The second aspect of the response was in Stuart’s less-good-cop impression. As he told the Canberra Times

Yeah I want to keep both players (Starling and Fogarty). They’re a big part of the club…Both boys know exactly where I sit with it and it’s up to Tom’s manager to communicate with Joel Carbone. Both boys know I want them here. Communication with Tom’s manager has been difficult for Joel.

It’s not the first time we’ve seen that this year, and it’s been repeated since. He played the same tune when Jamal Fogarty first came up, publicly seeking to by-pass Fogarty’s management in order to reach a deal. This is an intriguing strategy from Stuart, likely driven by the fact that both player’s management will be keen to take advantage of offers from around the league to seek appropriate overtures (i.e. straight cash homie) for their players.

Given the Raiders will be offering competition and more ‘streamlined and efficient’ pay offerings, it makes sense to try and appeal to more personal relationships. But like my guy Karl put in chapter six of his book, we’re all out here selling our labour for a limited period of time. It only makes sense for Tommy to get what he can while he can.

And so in recent weeks it’s increasingly leaned to that. Stuart has consistently said he wants to keep Tommy but can’t guarantee him playing time. That is a key part of his coaching philosophy, but also just a statement of fact. Anyone with two eyes and a thing for sublime rake play knows that Owen Pattie is doing everything right. His emergence as a kicking option alongside his stellar marker work and ‘good for his age/experience’ defence mean that he’s only going to get more game time. If Jamal Fogarty leaves, the 40/20 option he presents becomes even more important, and could drive him to big minutes in 2026. It would hardly appeal to Tommy.

Which is what has given Tommy’s comments this week even more weight. As he said

I’ll let my manager sort that stuff out. My job is to win games of footy so I’m just focusing on that. You can’t be thinking about external stuff when you’re trying to get ready for a game. Yeah for sure [I want to stay]. It’s the club that gave me my opportunity to play first grade and I’d love to be here

The ambiguity, the desire to not answer questions about his recruitment status feels heavier in the context of what he’s doing on the field, and what hasn’t happened off the field. We hang on to the end of the statement and hope the beginning is just overly cautious media training.

Regardless it’s an intriguing scenario and a bit of a Rorshach test. Do you think Tommy’s management is trying to drum up interest to make sure Canberra come correct with their deal? Or is he prepping for life after the Raiders? Would Starling be happier the starting nine for the Eels, or a career 14 for the Milk, getting less and less minutes behind the rising star of Owen Pattie. I can’t help but wonder that if the Milk’s cream keeps rising that it might be more likely Tommy leaves.

Either way there is limited spots in the Raiders top 30. Maybe it’s Tommy or Jamal. Or Josh. Or KPP (does thou knowest me?). I’m almost certain some of their more fanciful extensions to young players will be framed as ‘two-way’ deals, able to be transferred into the developmental list if the space to keep multiple vets is needed. But at face value it would be close to a closed shop. No Levi, Hopoate, Jordan Martin and lord knows who else, depending on how this resolves.

There’s likely plenty to come on this. It doesn’t feel like an easy negotiation, and if Tommy keeps playing with the confidence and decisiveness he’s shown so far this season then it will only get harder. The hands of elsewhere will come knocking, and a man needs to get paid. Canberra can keep Tom Starling. But right now it doesn’t feel likely.

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