BY DAN

An annual tradition no one knew exists is back.

As at writing the Canberra Raiders are in the top four. They’ve got a positive points differential for the first time since your Mum’s eyes sparkled at the handsome rogue that taught you to shave. Life is good, your Dad is proud of you, and the Canberra Raiders are going to win the competition. I feel safe.

For today. None of us are that silly that we’d allow ourselves to get carried away. We’re Raiders fans. We were molded by the sadness, embrace the chaos like Ozomatli. This time last year the Raiders had come off an impressive win against the Eels, scraped out a win against the Titans, and went into round seven with four wins and two losses. We asked the question, an injury followed for Jamal Fogarty, and a reckoning came their way over the next two weeks in which Canberra conceded 74 points and scored ten (Nick Campton voice: is that good?).

After a terrible start to the 2023 season they won five on the trot by the collective length of my courage (I am not brave), and we dipped our toe into the discussion, only for Manly to put them to the sword the very next week. In 2022 they were two-and-five after seven weeks with a points differential of minus 82, coming second last and we were calling them inept.

The point is this is not the time to get carried away (like I do). A few good singles doesn’t make Blazing Arrow. Canberra need to keep building on what they’ve already achieved. In their immediate future that’s eminently possible. The Titans are next and not good, at least in as much as we can say that about anyone this season. The ‘Phins have won two in a row, but one of those came against the Titans and the other against a Panthers team searching for what made them great. Then it’s magic round, and when magic is in the air the Milk can do great things. Just as easily it could all fall to shit. Like I said we’ve been hurt before.

I wonder though if there are reasons to think this is sustainable. They might not put 50 on fools every week, but there are characteristics of this roster which make me more hopeful that what they’re produced is more sustainable and consistent than the example of recent years.

For starters there’s more structural resilience in the squad. This has already been demonstrated by their ability to handle Joe Tapine’s absence post Vegas, and by Matty Nice’s powerful and consistent efforts on the right edge after Zac Hosking’s broken hand. Even in critical positions it feels like there’s a clear successor, and while I wouldn’t suggest it would be a one-for-one transaction, those backups feel of a sufficient quality. Adam Cook basically is Temu Fogarty, replete with the same hefty boot and perhaps a little more athleticism. Ethan Sanders will be healthy again and almost certainly involved in first grade at some point this year. Chevy Stewart is ready to cover for Kaeo. Owen Pattie could handle more minutes. Trey Mooney wants a shot, and Noah and Myles Martin(s) have been very good in Cup. The outside backs is the only spot of bother on the roster.

The young kids are also proving capable. Pattie has yet to disappoint. Savelio Tamale is averaging 150 plus metres a game and often looks impossible to tackle. Ethan Strange had his best game of the season against the Eels. Ata Mariota has taken a step up this season. That Trey Mooney is sitting at 18th man trying to get a run feels more to do with the quality of play of others, rather than the frustration of years past that he was unnecessarily being held back.

There also playing a better, more sustainable brand of footy this year. They’ve always been powerful, but now they’re faster across the park. It’s not just on the edges. The middles, from Horse to Taps to Papa and Ata, are quick in the line, using late footwork and pace to creating fast rucks. Tommy Starling is thriving because he can jet. On the edges Huddo is as athletic as they come, and Nicholson (and Hosking) are testing edges. Then on the outside having Kaeo Weekes, Savage and Tamale is keeping outside defenders honest and providing opportunities for the edges to attack in one on one situations.

Pace stretches defences, and when you add that to muscle it can be a combination that gives the Raiders more space and opportunities to play expansively. Hudson Young, our lord and try creator, set up his own try with Seb Kris last night on a 4 man game with space, giving Seb Kris options to target inside or outside shoulders of defenders. That came not just because the defence was barreled by the preceding hits through the middle of the ruck. The fact they had to stay stretched to account for what was outside them played a big role.

The Milk have matched the pace in attack with a renewed robustness in defence too. It’s not perfect and there are moments (ay ay ay are their moments). But particularly in their own twenty they’re often defending multiple sets. In recent seasons it’s felt like a six-again, or a repeat set, in that area was like lighting the beacon of Gondor and seeing Rohan ride the other way. In each game this season (even in the losses) they’ve defended large periods of time on their own line, and looked comfortable doing it.

They still have plenty of work on. On occasion their attack has the cohesion of a primary school band. Their defence has shown weaknesses that good sides can exploit. They’re prone to losing their way – it was *only* ten minutes against the Eels but that’s ten more than Melbourne will allow. They need to improve.

But this feels more permanent right now. They might not be building for this year, but they’re certainly evolving into something competitive. And in a competition so flat, without a big dog like Penrith to make it feel hopeless, that’s a new feeling.

But ah….just don’t get carried away.

I’m amazed if you made it this far. Give yourself a cookie as a reward. The mere act of liking the page on Facebook, following us on Twitter, or sharing this on social media is the most courageous act you can undertake. Don’t hesitate to send feedback (dan@sportress.org) or comment below.