BY DAN

As you would be aware if you read these pages, we have been quite negative about the Canberra Raiders prospects of retaining Jamal Fogarty.

Our case has been simple. The Raiders are committed to Ethan Sanders, and that means a one year deal for Fogarty in 2026. Fogarty can get longer deals with more money elsewhere. Asking him to stay, potentially risking his playing time and earning potentially watching Ethan Sanders get more run. Unless the Raiders want to play hardball, something Coach Stuart has been steadfastly against, those offers are you going to come. Manly is just the start of them.

Many of you have been less keen on this view. Broadly speaking many of you have wondered if my characterisation of outcome of this as inevitable is unfairly certain. I think this is a valid point. As my undergrad history lecturer (what up Doug!) used to say, as soon as you say something is inevitable you are wrong (at least in the humanities, I’m sure science types would have some vibes on that). In reality there is always options to pursue; an alternative view to consider. If we all just gave in because the odds were against us then Seb Kris wouldn’t have been falling over the line in the 79th minute last Thursday (oh what the hell let’s watch it again).

This not hoping against hope. At least from an alternative view there are good reasons to think this. The most obvious of these is that the Raiders don’t seem think his departure is inevitable. Asking Ricky Stuart told The Canberra Times this week:

We’re in the process of negotiating a one year deal with Jamal. I had coffee with Jamal this morning while we’re away and he knows I want him here at the club and I know he wants to be here.

This does slightly contrast with his recent comments that he’d let Jamal go if there was a longer deal out there (there is). But it does serve to highlight that Stuart doesn’t seem this as a forgone conclusion. Importantly it suggests they are still discussing and as long as that’s occurring nothing is dead.

Another option available to Fogarty is to stay for the bigger money Canberra are offering in 2026, and to sign a deal for 2027 as soon as 1 November comes around this year. We’ve tended to think of him signing a deal for 2027 in 2026, this ensconsing it in the transition process to Ethan Sanders. But of course he can sign up for 2027 as soon as he gets through 2025. This is an approach that could mean he gets to secure his future for 2027 and beyond, but also get the bigger money option that Canberra are offering for 2026.

Of course intent here matters. The years don’t matter if this is brinkmanship for money. We’ve tended to think about this more about the path the club is intending, and Fogarty wanting to get long term security. Perhaps he is aware he’ll still be able to get more years post 1 November, and just wants to make sure 2026 involves as much cash as possible. The current dance with other suitors may be about jacking up his current value, as well as ensuring his future. He takes money for 2026 to stay in Canberra, sings a two-year from 2027. It gets him the most money and extends his career. There is a risk of 2025 goes south – injury being the most likely path – and he can’t get the deal he wants at the end of the year but it’s one he may be willing to roll with.

I love that idea because of the win-win nature of it all, and I hope that’s how things are progressing. It does seem the best way forward for both parties, and the benefit maximisation makes me think my concerns about short term security may be overblown. Ethan Sanders may not be ecstatic about it but that’s Stick’s job to manage.

It’s not beyond doubt or hope. It’s not ridiculous to think this is a path that could be followed. It’ll be determined by how confident Fogarty is deals for 2027 will be there in November. It’ll be influenced by how much cash teams are willing to throw down now. It’s also would he dependent on whether the Raiders were willing to get close to his current rate. Both Stuart and Furner have seemed to suggest at different points this year that amount was a bit of a poison pill. But if that’s the market rate (plus Canberra tax) then maybe they’re more open to it or at least getting close to it.

Even after this thought experiment I’m still not sure the Raiders will keep Jamal Fogarty.

But I would like it if they did.

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