BY ROB

After two dud away games the Raiders finally managed to get things back on track, handing the Sharks a last-minute loss with one of the best team tries in recent memory. To make the most of this uptick in fortune the Milk need to make sure they don’t sour in the Darwin heat.

The Eels themselves finally have something to cheer about, after they downed the Dragons in golden point last Saturday. They’ll be desperate to hold onto that winning feeling, and given how these two teams have fared in the tropics previously they could spring a nasty upset on the Green Machine.

The Raiders should at least be ready for the heat and humidity. They beat the Broncos at a balmy Canberra Stadium three weeks back and then spent another 80 minutes in grueling Townsville conditions in round 4. While nothing can ever truly prepare you for the energy-sapping nature of the top end Canberra have arguably had the best preparation for it.

The Raiders have an unchanged 17, the only minor tweaks being Smithies back on the bench to start the game (for now). Given Stick’s penchant for last minute smoke screens we could well see the Englishman elevated to starting prop again.

The one area the Raiders must improve this week is their right side defence. They were extremely lucky that the Sharks didn’t exploit this particular weakness more last round, and I fully expect that Timoko and Savage will have been conducting sliding trust drills all week. Ryles will surely be sending traffic their way.

The good news for Canberra is that the Eels are playing this game with a host of talent watching from the injury ward. Moses, Cartwright, Lussick and Lomax are all sidelined, while Canberra are only without Zac Hosking. The Eels have Dean Hawkins playing at 7, and he appears to be a touch more capable than young Volkman.

Speaking of 7s, it will be interesting to see how Fogarty fares this week. The noise around his links to Manly has amplified this week and he’ll no doubt be keen to show the club courting him that he can manage a side in the most challenging of conditions. While it’s never fun to see a good player prepare for their exit we should rejoice in the fact that we’ll have him in our company for a bit longer.

As to actual game plans – if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it (although improvements should be wholly encouraged). Canberra have had the most success when they own the middle, stifling their opponents in yardage. Conversely the Eels are struggling to generate metres upfront, with only Junior Paulo producing anything close to consistent quality and quantity with the ball in hand. If the Milk can force the Eels into long defensive stints they’ll quickly tire in the mugginess.

In Conclusion

There’s not too much to say here – control the ball and you can control the energy levels. If a team can get out to a strong early lead they’ll have an almost unassailable position for the rest of the match.

Raiders by 12+!

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