BY DAN

The impact is as inevitable as the slam of a prop into the defensive line.

Canberra’s future focus is colliding with Jamal Fogarty’s current needs, and it means its increasingly likely that he’ll leave the club. The current suitor is the same as the old one, with the Manly Sea-Eagles reportedly set to offer him a deal reportedly worth $500k a year over two years from 2026. It may not be this deal that snags him, but more will come. And eventually this will likely end with Fogarty at a new club in 2026.

Outside the brief moment of false hope given by Hoops, this has always felt like a likely outcome. Canberra are committed to a future behind Ethan Sanders. While the preferred model would be that 2026 was a transition year, this was always a ‘Raiders centric’ ideal. Fogarty was always going to want to get the money and security of a longer deal. He was highly unlikely to stay and watch his playing time, and earning potential dwindle. The iron in the fire is hot so to speak.

If Canberra wanted to keep him they’d have to abandon their approach. Stuart has been clear about not wanting to do that. While there is still time to pick up his expensive option for 2026 (around $700k according to the Tele), all reporting, and all words from Stick has been that the Raiders didn’t want to play hard ball with Fogarty. Even the decision to go to the Gold Coast to meet Fogarty’s manager next week suggests they won’t force him to stay by picking up the option. Too much respect is held for the man, and his family, and what they’ve achieved with the club. If there’s a big money deal for him out there they don’t want to stand in his way.

That’s a noble position, no doubt coming with the caveat of being driven by the fact they have Sanders as their long term focus. They’d no doubt love to keep Fogarty to support and mentor the young half, but that’s something that requires Fogarty to risk his earning future out of some pious commitment to a club that can’t be as committed to him. He has to look after his family first, and so we end up at this inevitable position with trains tearing towards each other at speed.

It’s a shame. Fogarty has been more than a leader for the club. He’s had an outside impact on their success, and the stabilisation of the post-Covid team into something approaching functionality. It could have gone so much worse after the entire 2019 grand final spine departed the club, and it didn’t. That was primarily because Jamal took control of the side on the field, and provided crucial cultural leadership off it.

Canberra do have options. Sanders will be given every chance to prove his worth. While his limited Cup form hasn’t been enough to have fans salivating, it’s shown enough of what is needed from a lead half. Previously he’s been an obvious leader on the field, a smart game manager with a substantial step-up athletically from Fogarty. He’ll be an easier fit with Ethan Strange, allowing him to shift to his more natural right side. More time in Cup for Sanders, and potentially in the top line, will be useful once he returns from his eye socket injury. Adam Cook is a high-floor backup if he doesn’t work out.

My heart wishes there was some way to keep him. My head feels like this was unavoidable. The timeline of his needs and the Raiders’ simply don’t match. It’s not so much it’s a smart decision to let him go, but rather a structural test of the club’s commitment to the future. They can hardly abandon that at the first sign of tension. The youth movement may not end up paying off, but that they’ll never know if they don’t try.

Unfortunately that means seeing Jamal Fogarty at another club.

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