BY DAN

Three and two. More wins and losses. Beating two top four teams, another prospective or expected top four team. It’s not perfect but if offered this six weeks ago most Canberra fans would have taken it. Check. Solid start done.

Now Canberra has an opportunity to do more. Coming are the Eels (Darwin), the Titans (on the Gold Coast), and the ‘Phins (Bruce) before Magic Round. All three are below the Raiders on the table, all three have had up-and-down seasons (well, mostly down) and most would expect the ‘good’ version of the Raiders to beat them. And if you’re banking on that happening, then you’re probably new here.

The first test is in Darwin. Pop quiz – when was the last time the Raiders won in warm weather? I had to look it up. It was in Mackay during the pandemic against the notably warm weather loving Warriors. Since the 2019 grand final they’ve won two and lost seven north of Brisbane. On average they’ve conceded 26.3 points a game and scored 16.4. Some of that includes Covid randomness, but if we make it exclusively post 2021, then the record is zero wins from four tries, with an average score of losing margin of 29.25 to 12.5. For what it’s worth last time they were in Darwin they lost to Parramatta back in 2019.

Can they deploy the ‘good’ Raiders in the heat? You know the one winning 28-16 on average. The one averaging near six line breaks a game, 40 tackle busts. The one that pantsed two of the current top four with ferociousness. Or the one that got rolled by Manly so bad the “loss” stats aren’t useful.

But if you want to know, in losses on average they’ve been outgained by 350 plus metres, 100 plus post contact metres, conceded 7 line breaks (compared to 2.7 in wins), makes 5 less tackle busts and conceded 8 more. Jeez that Manly game was a statistical nightmare.

The sample is too small and the variability too big to know what we’re dealing with.

We know what makes this team work. They lead the competition in offloads and post contact metres. They are big boys doing big boy things. Direct footy. Leaning in to being fast and physical at every position across the park. Matty Nicholson hitting a line. Corey Horsburgh dropping an offload. Joe Tapine un-bring-a-down-able. Tommy Starling burning off the back of it all. And on special occasions getting outside backs in space. Backing it all up with committed and cohesive defence.

The eye test (well, my eye test) leans towards the good version of them being the dominant partner in the Jekyll and Hyde like dance, but I felt this way last year and it all fell apart. There’s still too many obvious problems like Kaeo Weekes catching a bomb, or the right edge’s recent porosity, to get carried away with “good” Canberra. Maybe throw some decent shape in there, or find a way to make less than ten errors a game (current average 11.6) or give away less than 12.2 infringements a game, and we can start getting excited. Maybe do it while winning a game most would expect to you, in place no Raiders fan would be sure you will.

Are we asking too much? This is a young team. Mistakes will be made and (hopefully) lessons learned. One opportunity was passed in North Queensland a few weeks back. Redemption followed but that’s the easy hit. Now comes the chance to build an advantage again. Let’s hope they take it.

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