BY DAN

Canberra are not going to keep Jamal Fogarty.

I am not the first to write this, and won’t be the last, or only. This is not a unique take, and that’s ok. It’s looking at the reality of the situation, and what is coming down the pipeline and acknowledging it’s existence. At this stage it’s just my opinion (man), but it’s one shared by all the people that matter. Most notably Ricky Stuart.

He may as well have been giving up the ghost before the game on Saturday when he said that he wouldn’t stand in Jamal Fogarty’s way should a better or longer deal than the reported $650k. As he told Fox before the game:

I spoke to Jamal this week…I said to Jamal ‘if you’ve got a big deal that’s going to be the best for Kahlia and the girls you take that. But I want you at the club’.

It was tantamount to waiving the white flag. The only way the Raiders were going to keep him was playing hard ball – picking up the option before round six and sticking their fingers in their ears pretending there’s not bigger deals for Fogarty out there. But Stuart basically said they won’t play hardball, and if the deals are out there he’s free to pursue them. He doubled down today.

While it might not be Manly coming knocking – as we noted last week they’re just spraying and praying like Lana Kane – someone is going to. Manly, the Cows, Gold Coast, Canterbury, New Zealand, St George, potentially Brisbane…it’s probably easier to list the teams that don’t need a starting halfback for 2026.

Jamal Fogarty is a good half in a league with a lack of them. Yes he’ll be 32 entering that season, but there are older players. He’s got less miles on his body because he didn’t start playing first grade regularly until he was 27. His main skill-set are those that every club needs, and don’t require the athleticism of youth, which he never had even when he was young. In short there will be demand. Someone is going to offer Fogarty a two or three year deal, at decent money.

Stick, as pointed out above, would prefer that wasn’t the case. He wants to keep Fogarty for 2026, but can’t lean longer, because then it’s eating into the chances of keeping Ethan Sanders around (not to mention even seeing what he can be). Fogarty’s ceiling isn’t high enough to be the difference between the Raiders being amazing (like amazing), and if the Raiders are going to be disciplined and stick to the plan beyond the horizon, it necessitates hard decisions like this.

Canberra can’t give him the security he needs, and other teams will. Fogarty would be right to make sure what is likely the last big deal of his professional career is the kind that is life altering. The abundance of tread on his tires is balanced by the lack of contract money is his bank account. As Stick says, he’s got to do what is right for his family, and if someone is going to offer crazy money then he should take it.

You might be hoping this is Stuart trying to reverse-psychology him into taking the ‘second’, lower paid option. Noting the club had initially (and optimistically) hoped to keep Fogarty for less than the $650k in his option, I do not think this is Stuart’s aim now. He is merely acknowledging a reality that exists, both in the push out of Canberra, the pull of other clubs, and in Fogarty’s family’s needs. The Raiders need to move on, other teams need a better half, and Jamal needs to think of his future. I do not get the impression it’s a reflection on their relationship – more the respect Sticky holds Fogarty in as a man.

If he does leave Canberra won’t be fine, but they do have a plan. Fogarty is more developed and capable than Ethan Sanders at this time. The Raiders win 58 per cent of the games he plays. He leads the team in try assists since he came to the club. His boot is otherworldly, even if his running game lacks for agility and zest. He has been a good fit for this club. They will miss him.

But Sanders is a talent too. A better runner, with potential at each facet of the game to be better than Fogarty. But he’s not currently, and to take over a first grade side is a tough ask for young player with no experienced help in the spine. Before the season the word on Sanders was he was vocal, and happy to tell the older players what to do. But in Cup he’s been far too comfortable to let Danny Levi ruin things, or Adam Cook take the helm. Perhaps this was more an example of the Raiders trying to talk something into existence – they did similar with Morgan Smithies passing game before the 2024 season.

The hope is that by next year Sanders will be ready. That’s complicated by his significant injury coming out of the weekend. That could keep him and while and reduce how much can be put in this year. But at some point Sanders will be given the conch, and the Raiders hope he can reach his, and their, potential. It’s a gamble, but that was the gamble they made last year.

I wish there was another way. But if Fogarty stays at Canberra he’s doing them a favour. It would be less money, less years, reducing playing time, and a team that is unlikely to be winning a championship while he’s with the club. There’s no logical situation I can see that would lead him to stay. If he does I will hail him forever as a hero and servant of the Canberra people. But if he doesn’t I’ll just acknowledge he did the right thing for him, and his family. The Raiders have an apprentice, who will come with all the trappings and foibles of youth, and if they win a chip that trainee will have become the master that Fogarty will likely never quite be.

It would be easier if the Raiders could have their cake and eat it to. But that’s just not realistic. People have lives. Lives have needs. These things happen, and we wish those that pass through ours and do us right all that is good and proper in their futures. Jamal deserves that, whatever decision he makes.

Canberra are not going to keep Jamal Fogarty. And that’s OK.

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