BY DAN

The changes for this week are minimal. This is a good sign. It suggests the Coach Stuart trusts what they’ve built before now. Now comes the test of that trust.

They’re walking in a tough fight. The Cows have often been a bad matchup for the Raiders. They put 34 and 42 points on the Milk in 2024 with minimal fuss. In the past they’ve had too much pace on the edges, and too much power in the middle. A hot evening in Townsville – a place they haven’t won at since 2020 – against a side beyond desperate to get of the schneid, who showed an improved effort in their most recent game? This is way tougher than the ladder would suggest.

Canberra have embraced that battle by ‘dancing with what brung’ them. The changes for this week are minimal. Morgan Smithies is out under the Head Injury Assessment protocol. Joe Tapine returns from his suspension. Trey Mooney retains his place on the bench, and Kaeo Weekes retains his spot at fullback despite a horror performance against the Sea-Eagles.

These are all fairly straightforward decisions in a sense – the path of least change. Canberra didn’t really miss Tapine against Manly, mostly because they never had the ball long enough to note the discrepancy. The King is back in and he’ll be keen to make up for lost time. Getting back an elite forward who can easily acquit fifty minutes of quality is of great value. That’s particularly the case when you’re losing someone in Smithies who can equally go big minutes.

In that same vein Trey Mooney’s retention is worth noting. With no Smithies I was wondering if Pasami Saulo might get the call-up, essentially to cover the defensive and decoy effort work that Smithies often gets through. Evidently Stuart is happy that is covered by the existing personnel. Mooney managed 44 minutes last week, and it seems he’s splitting time with Big Papa. That means the other 160 minutes will be split between Horse, Taps, Ata and maybe Simi or Tom Starling. Mariota hasn’t had big minutes this year, but I think he’s been the pick of the bench middles.

Weekes too keeps his spot, as you would expect. He had a horror night on the weekend, but he’s currently far and away the best option at fullback. One bad outing is not a reason to toss out the whole thing. Some are concerned he hasn’t been breaking big plays and gains as he did on occasion last year, and with Chevy Stewart waiting in the wings, it’s understandable people were having second thoughts after last Sunday. But while he hasn’t made that impact, the tendency of teams to focus their edge and kick chases on stopping him from going big is having a positive net effect in terms of creating space and opportunities for others.

The changes, or lack thereof, is the most heartening thing in this list. While we often castigate Stuart for his tendency to stick with players or ideas well after they’re proven ineffective, this team list to me suggests a trust in what has been built before this game. For two weeks this team looked ahead of the curve, and one game in which literally everything that could go wrong, did, is not a reason to panic. Sticking with the players that proven their quality in the first two weeks suggests Stuart thinks that the Manly game is the outlier, not the other way around.

Now it’s time to repay that faith.

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