BY DAN

Your typical 17 man line up prediction that graces most social media and new features at this time of the season isn’t very interesting for the Canberra Raiders.

While we’ve all had preferences and innovations in the corners of our minds, the likley outcome feels settled. Weekes won the fullback role. Strange and Fogarty have clearly been working as the starting halves. The absence of Bert Hopoate, and the performance of the alternatives over the pre-season games of the competition, has meant that Savelio Tamale is the likely walk up for week one. Matty Nicholson’s performance, and the re-injury risk of Zac Hosking’s calf, has meant that both of them are likely to be in the 17 in some form. Even our collection fondness for Owen Pattie isn’t likely to be reciprocated, at least not yet.

When you look at it you realise there is only realistically one position up for grabs for Vegas.I’ll prove it to you

Weekes, Tamale, Kris, HIMoko, Savage, Strange, Fogarty, Taps, Starling, Papa, Huddo, Nicholson, Smithies, Levi, Horse, Hosking….[person x].

Look I know that you don’t want someone in this list to be there. Maybe you’d prefer the club give Pattie the minutes over Levi. We’re building for the future after all. Maybe you’ve never been a big Smithies guy, or you don’t think Nicholson is ready or Hosking is healthy or you want to get Ethan Sanders in there by getting fancy and footloose in the backline. But you know, and I know, that Sticky *knows* that this is his best chance to win. At least in Vegas.

There are a variety of ways you can fill that last position. Coach Stuart has been known to play three hookers before, so maybe you don’t have to give up on Pattie getting a shot. He’s also been known to carry a binkie in the form of a reserve half on the bench. Last year that was Adam Cook. Maybe it could be Ethan Sanders? It would make as much sense. At times Stuart has also carried a random back on the bench. Bailey Simonsson famously came on for the last ten minutes of the grand final. You just need a bit of variety to your game, the ability to cover a few spots. So…uh…Jed?

Stuart also has a proven track record in picking a random to sit on the bench and watch while he leans on his preferred options (Bailey and Brad are the first names I think of here. Jarrett Subloo got one carry in the baby Raiders game. Kai O’Donnell, Trey Mooney are all players that debuted and got short stints before never being seen again. Chuck your favourite in the comments). So the idea of a random to play somewhere between zero and fifteen minutes is not beyond the realms of possibilities.

This is the bit where I pit your hopes of innovation against Stick’s predictability and desire for certainty. Combined with a slightly narrow field and it feels like a middle forward is the most likely outcome. Trey Mooney, Pasami Saulo, and Ata Mariota are the most likely candidates. Each has their own appeal.

It’s not a big role. There’s 240 minutes for middle forwards and it’s safe to say that Taps, Horse, Smithies and Papa will eat up the best part of 200 of those minutes. Horse could go 70 minutes when he was just a regular Horse, not the fully fledged stud he is after this off-season. Smithies routinely played 60 plus minutes. Taps should be playing 50 a game. Hell 200 might be understating it. You can add to the fact that between Zak Hosking and Matty Nicholson I would expect them to cover a good chunk of the remainder as they switch between middle an edge (as Stuart has now flagged multiple times). In the end we might only be talking about 20-25 minutes of game time.

Mooney is the bruising runner, and seems most suited to the role of impact forward. So far in first grade he’s been good, but not quite the wrecking ball many had hoped. He’s also had some uninspiring defensive efforts (such as falling off an attempt on the goal line against the Sharks that became a try). At just 22 he feels still new but also like we’ve been waiting for the leap from him over the last two years, so maybe this is year it comes.

In 2024 Ata Mariota he had more runs of 8 metres than any Canberra forward outside of Joey and Papa as a proportion of total runs. It was a similar story with tackle breaks. He also had more line breaks than any other middle (feet baby. They matter for bigs). But he also had a poor defensive moment in the trial game. Mariota could do a similar role to Mooney and provide additional coverage on the edge (not that it’s necessarily required these days). He can also handle bigger shifts if needed, as shown in 2023’s final against the Knights, where injury led him to taking on a bigger role in which he thrived (193m on the ground).

Saulo hasn’t been favoured this off-season but he offers a different set of skills. He’s not the bulldozer of Trey Mooney nor a Mariota dancer. His work is dirtier, done in defensive efforts and decoy runs that make good teams work. It’s not glamorous, but when its alongside people like Papa and Taps it makes good sense to have someone to do that work. But given Horsburgh and Smithies presence, and willingness to do this work (Smithies was the only Raider in the top 50 NRL players in decoys and support runs last year), Stick may prefer impact that workrate.

Mooney started alongside Papalii in the dress rehearsal against the Sharks last week. Saulo and Mariota have been consistently playing off the bench through the trial games. Perhaps that’s a statement of intent from Stick and we should expect Mooney to get the first shot. Given the minutes restriction on that spot it makes plenty of sense. Get the big guy on and let him tear the middle 30 minutes of the game apart. It’s not fancy or innovative. Hopefully it’s effective.

Shouts to Matt from the GMP who put this concept in my head weeks ago. Sign up to the email below because we’re all we’ve got. Also like the page on Facebook, follow me on BlueSky, or share this on social media. Don’t hesitate to send us feedback (dan@sportress.org) or comment below if you think we are stupid. Or if we’re not.