BY DAN

Let’s start with the obvious.

In all likelihood Josh Papalii is retiring. No matter how much ambiguity is inserted into this discussion. Me. You. The people. We all just need to get used to the idea of life after Papa. The man has earned a break. Let him rest.

Ok? Ok.

….

But what if he’s not?

*eyebrow raises, heart grows, cheeky smiles widens*

Dare we believe?

No we daren’t. But this has now come up enough times that I’m willing to entertain the idea. The latest version comes from the Big Papa telling a fan “Don’t believe the media mate,” as reported by the Canberra Times.

It comes hot on the heels of some quasi-cryptic social media gear from the big guy about there being ‘no retirement around here’. At the time most took as a reflection that his mindset is to go hard until the end. But with this reporting by the Times, we’re at least allowed to countenance the idea he might be keen to stick around a little longer. At least that’s what the paper seemed to be doing.

We do find that hard to believe. Rugby league is a young man’s game. While Papa is still effective, he’s very much at the tail of his days. Over the years we’ve oft pointed to this article from the always excellent Rugby League Eye Test that demonstrates how diminishing the returns are for middles after 30. Papalii has fought Father Time on that, but as the good lord and Jalen Rose will tell you, that battle is unwinnable.

The scuttlebutt has always been that Papa’s family is keen for a move back to Logan. It’s come up in the to-and-fro of negotiations of this last two contracts. As much as we watch from afar, we are not a part of the circle that is aware of what those conversations entail. But safe to say if Papa felt he had to go home as a promise to his family, the ledger of goodwill should very much be in his balance.

If he *did* decide to play on there’s a fair question as to whether the Raiders would sign him. Players that have been pre-announced to either leave or retire have largely stayed that way (Rapa, Smell, Hodgson). The Milk would rather jump off a year early than hold on too long, and to their credit they’ve been mostly right. And so far it hasn’t really meant watching someone in the wrong jersey.

But if there’s an inkling he might play on, Canberra would be smart to have a long think about being the team he does that with. Papalii, at least as we last saw him, is still an above average prop. On most metrics he was the second best the club had in 2024. And he’s still good enough to make a big impact. His 106m per game were comparable to the rising star of Leo Thompson (mind you with much more coming from kick returns). His metres per run were 23rd in the competition for middles. His tackle breaks were 17th best. All of those numbers were second best amongst Canberra middles. That all matches the eye test from last season. Many established props would love to make the impact he does every week.

After Canberra missed out on Leo Thompson, they’re still looking for that bridge to the next generation. I’m of the view they don’t need it, but they clearly think the opposite. Would one more year of Papa allow them the time and space they need to work out what they’re doing with Mooney, Mariota, Patuki-Case et al?

Of course there are risks. Last year was his lowest output since 2016. He’ll be 33 by the time he’d be signing on for more work. There’s more than a chance that investing in him could risk the development or retention of one of the future cohort. And the reasons for this would all be in the rear mirror. If the pull of Queensland was matched by interest from one of the local clubs it could make the cost of keeping him more than the value of the output.

So if he did go around the club would have to have a clear idea of what he’d be offering and what they’d want, for now but also tomorrow. It requires cooler heads and colder hearts than I could ever offer. The chance to see the big guy coming off the back fence another time, delaying the inevitable statue build for another year, reminding me with every step of the time he ran over Damian Cook? I’d take it every time. But that’s why it’s a good thing I’ll never be near the Milk’s purse strings.

But that’s all speculation about a hypothetical that will never eventuate. He’s definitely going to retire.

Right?

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