BY DAN

People will question all the good things they hear about you, but believe all the bad things without a second thought
– Instagram vibe attributed to Gandhi, Thucydides, and a priest walking into a bar

What if they’re right?
– my brain

A good old fashioned social media rumour chase occurred over the weekend. Tom Starling was spotted (and, importantly, photographed) at Souths Juniors. Given the speculation of his likely signature at the club last week, it was expected this was further confirmation. Instead Tom Starling popped on to social media to note he was there for an unrelated event – a funeral in fact. This made the whole dance feel that much dirtier.

Ultimately this whole passage of time was just a fun way to spend some mental energy. The situation with Starling hasn’t moved, at least in as far as we, the viewing public, are aware. There are *still* no mainstream media reports.

Starling’s own Instagram posting in the days prior seemed to hint that something is coming, so one can hardly blame people for getting carried away. The big reveal theoretically could still be a re-up at Canberra, but that feels unlikely. As we pointed out last week, the structure of the Raiders top 30 makes that increasingly improbable he’ll be retained. However you feel we’re in the space of trying to prove something without any information. There’s no quotes. No reporting. Just vibes.

Our position remains that the structural reasons for him leaving, and going to Souths, remain. Starling is one of six players off contract, with only one space left in the top 30 for next year. Levi and Guler have already been rumoured to leave, but on the balance of probabilities Starling’s appeal to the wider market, and the Bunnies in particular, make it likely he’ll leave.

If and/or when this happens this presents a challenge for Canberra in both the short and long term. His deal with Canberra expires at the end of the 2025 season. When that time comes, the Milk will be down to one certified rake for the 2026 season. In a position that they’ve been trying to fill for the best part of 12-18 months the Milk would be in the market for a double addition. Even if they retain Starling they’ll still need to get into free agency for someone.

There’s a paucity of options on the market, as they have discovered, and even finding a replacement level hooker will be hard to come by. Owen Pattie is obviously the central platform around which they intend to build, but finding the right fittings around him will be hard. It’s a shame because if you were thinking about a good complement to Pattie, Starling would likely be it.

If Starling was to sign elsewhere it would have even greater ramifications in the short term. Signing a deal with the Bunnies from 2026 would likely lead to pressure from the Sydney club to let him go early. Souths can accommodate him – it seems from my reading of the top 30 they have spaces free – and would likely benefit from his skills. They are as relevant to their needs as they will be in 12 months time.

If this were to eventuate, Canberra would be wise to not accede to this request. They currently only have two hookers in their top 30 for 2025 (Starling and Levi, though Pattie is on the supplemental list so can play NRL from round one). The last thing they need is to put themselves in a situation where they’re relying on Owen Pattie to display experience beyond his years, and Danny Levi. In fact what they need is time – to get back into the market.

Time will loosen the Warrington Wolves hold on Danny Walker. Keeping Starling in 2025 and revisiting Walker later in the year will increase the likelihood of reaching an agreement with the English club. As we’d noted when that pursuit begun, the position of the English team was less principled and more Jerry Maguire based. By end 2025 there will on be twelve months left on Walker’s deal in England. The window for getting sweet, sweet transfer cash would be quickly closing and the incentive to make a trade greater.

Time would also give them time to ascertain the readiness of Pattie, and also Shaun Packer (playing NSW Cup this season) to play a big role in first grade. If both seem ready, then the drive to get someone like Walker may be less important. It may allow them to focus more on finding depth (as opposed to a top-line option). That opens the range of options and may allow them to look at players with less ‘pedigree’ so to speak. Yes that includes Cory Paix, Hadyn.

So time is of the essence and Canberra needs to buy it some. The shown the requisite prioritisation in holding on to Zac Woolford to be depth instead of being able to pursue his career elsewhere. It may require similar self-interest in this case. Because while we know nothing certain, it certainly does seem that Tom Starling is going.

Even if this weekend wasn’t the proof the commentariat expected.

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