BY DAN

Cue the horns and the dancers. Ladies and gentlemen this is Mailbag Number Five.

It’s been a bit of a time really. Since the offseason started we’ve gone from contending for a new rake, to hoping to overpay for an admittedly pretty good prop, to wondering if our incumbent fourteen is going to stick around. Right now we’re looking at 19 year olds like a married Boomer and hoping they deliver salvation. It’s the best way forward, unfortunately. But it’s not without risk. Ah well, like my best mate Brandi Carlisle said, you gotta dance with the devil on a river to beat the stream. Call it living the dream. Call it kicking the ladder.

Let em laugh while they can. The jokes on them. Speaking of….

On a scale of 1 to Christian Bale, how angry do you get at various footy social media pages that tip us for the wooden spoon every season?
– Andrew JP on FB

Is Batman a Raiders fan? It would make sense. The inter-generational trauma would appeal. Living in the shadow of the rest of the league, vacillating between being taken seriously and ignored or worse. Far out he’s practically talking about the Milk when he says “I fear dying in here, while my city burns, and there’s no one there to save it”. Bruce…get a blog man.

But in terms of me I am zen. I am existence, melded and harmonious. I am without anger, without malice, without hatred or concern. This is the way of things, nature is healing. Life and existence heaves its breath, filling all our lungs.

In English I am so chill with this. This occurs for multiple structural reasons. Firstly we are a small market, so publications wanting to piss off the fewest people possible will generally err in our direction. Secondly most of the major rugby league media types don’t actually watch our games (or footy in general). When they do they come into the games with a brazenly fixed set of priors that leads to confirmation bias in takes that will take years to overcome. Further contributing is that we are a team with few Australian big names – i.e. people that players will see come origin night – so the writers don’t even have a shorthand to land on – stuff like ‘well Jarome Luai won’t let them come last again’. And fairly when people look at our spine they see nothing but uncertainty.

So it’s much easier to make the pitch for us at the bottom. This happens so often that it doesn’t feel like a threat. In fact I think it helps. Coach Stuart’s intent at the moment is to lower expectations. This might have a self serving aspect – i.e. to reduce any seat for his seat – but also is about protecting his young chargers from the hot air of the media, and maybe even give them a bit of nerve in their spirit. Speaking of the youth movement

Who has the most promise out of our young signings?
– Mike S on FB

This is the first of five questions from Mike. He’s a good guy. As you might be aware he’s currently preparing to run a marathon to raise money for a very worthy cause. The Green Machine Podcast, of which Mike is a host, is also starting up it’s 5km ‘Race a Raider‘ challenge soon. You should participate in this. If my fat ass can punch out a sneaky 5km despite hating running with the equal amount of passion as I love the Raiders, you can too.

But on to his question. This is a fun question. Promise is a curious word. Ethan Strange’s promise is more defined by what we saw last year. Chevy Stewart’s similarly, though the impact is probably in different directions since before round one last year. Savelio Tamale’s been talked up by people much much much smarter than me and his job will be the most straightforward of them all – being a winger is not an easy role, but it is easy to learn.

Ethan Sanders’ potential is more nebulous, more ethereal. Emerging halfbacks that look in command sing a siren’s song to me. Giving him a left foot kick is like watching a left-handed bat cover drive. It just looks fucking hot. I remember having similar thoughts about Mitch Cornish and Mick Dobson. I believed they were running games before first grade. They saw the game with what I interpreted as maturity. Maybe it more reflects my nascent understanding of the game. When they then got to the top line where most people are doing the right thing (though admittedly, not always the men in green), and you need add extraordinary to that to be great.

So I’m wary of putting all my chips on Sanders. I’ve been hurt before. So let me cheat and take both the Ethans for different reasons. Strange has all the physical attributes to be an excellent half. He’s already an elite defender at the position. He’s got a strong running game, can switch sides of the ground with ease. Give him time at six and we’ll profit. It may not be a generational talent (it also may be) but it will be a ten year starter with patience.

Sanders though. Boy howdy. Hose me down because I’m so caught up in him he’s lucky I’m not trying to put $20 notes in his undies. That left foot kick. The game management. The fit with Strange.

How do I politely decline unsolicited advice about my life from my family over the holidays, and how does Kaeo Weekes fit into the line-up once Chevy fulfills our hopes a dreams?
– Andrew B on FB

Ooft. Holidays do be like that. I’m sorry Andrew that you have to put up with that. The silly season should be the time of hugs, both literal and metaphorical. My goal of Christmas is to make sure everyone I care about knows I think they’re rad. I’ve been getting worse at that the older I get. Sometimes we think we’re helping people find their best. Mostly it just comes across as annoying.

I have no advice to offer here that I have followed. I can offer you the advice that I should heed which is you are rad and don’t need to change a thing, and you should feel comfortable telling people that. If they don’t like it they can cram it. Even the people you love.

In more practical advice I recommend getting a Raiders blog. That way the only people that want to talk to you are Raiders fans. Everyone will just whisper ‘is he ok…like you know….*O K*’ to your partner, and she’ll pour herself another drink and stare off into the distance.

You put up 20 posts about Leo Thompson, have you looked at he’s stats?? What in attack would he have offered?
– Adam C on FB.

Adam raises a strong point about NRL statistics. He’s entirely right. Leo’s per game stats aren’t anything exciting. 100 odd metres a game, 30 odds tackles at 93 per cent efficiency. It’s not exactly Joey Taps numbers. Good defender, decent metres, but why would you pay him Joey Taps money? What’s he bringing that you can’t get from Trey Mooney (the defence mostly)?

It’s a fair point. As we said here, here and here, it was never the most efficient acquisition. He didn’t address a specific need like hooker. He was strengthening an area that was already a strength. He was buying at the top of the market for a good player.

But Leo Thompson is a good player. Yes the stats aren’t glitzy but there’s nuance there. He’s not meant to be a bulk metres guy. As the ABC writer Nick Campton recently put on the NRL Boom Rookies podcast, he’s more of a James Fisher-Harris type. Not big metres, but controlling the middle with his defence, and taking the occasional impact run. It doesn’t take a genius to work out how that would work for the Milk.

Another bit of nuance. One of the reasons that Thompson’s metre numbers are underwhelming was he doesn’t take kick returns. That was near 30 metres a game to (for example) Addin Fonua-Blake. That doesn’t make up the gap in metres between the two (Addin averages 175 a game). But we often talked about Leo as a replacement for Josh Papalii. Well they average the same amount of metres, and Papa was taking kick returns for 20 a game.

The pitch was always making a bet that Thompson was on his way up, much like Papa is on his way down. As we referenced here, the Rugby League Eye Test outlined the age at which middles generally are in their primes (mid-to-late 20s). The Raiders were essentially taking a punt that the trajectory of the last two years would be consistent.

Missing out isn’t a killer for the same reason that getting him was inefficient. But the chase did reveal that perhaps they aren’t as high on the in-house products as we are. Missing out just dampened the spirits, confirming what we all know: that Canberra has problems with free agents.

The Leo Thompson failed signing is yet another one. Are the Raiders doing something wrong here or is it as simple as location (paraphrase: is there anything in the clubs power to change this issue?)
– Mike S on FB

Mikey Mike! As we wrote here, I reckon there’s a bunch of stuff here beyond the team’s control. But it’s impossible to say that Ricky doesn’t have an impact. That can be in both directions. There’s no doubt there’s players that have come, or stayed, because of him. Just as similar there’s probably as many that have seen how Canberra have played, how he’s blown up in press conferences (like the ‘weak-gutted dog’ incident) or handled player growth (like not speaking to Corey Horsburgh for months on end last year).

Will you be returning for NRLCEO – Fantasy Rugby League this year and if so, do you think you will beat Mike Stevenson in Div2?
– Frederick M on FB

I will be returning. I was in Div 1 last year and was terrible, so back to reggies for me. Ugh ugh ugh.

Does Ricky have the ability to change it up? We have seen some small shifts in assistants this year but stats from recent years show how off the pace the Raiders have been in attack and defence. Raiders have been credited with being gritty but if they don’t change can they go close to finals?
– Mike S on FB

I have walked this path and it leads to nothing but misery. Ricky is as Ricky does. The only constancy about his approach is that he is constant. We’ve had an attacking team under him. We’ve had a defensive team. We’ve had a team that could do both for a blessed two season. We’ve had a team that does neither for the last two.

Often I’ve heard is that he leans on his assistants a lot to keep pace with tactical changes and he handles a more strategic and man management approach. As you note change has come in the form of more Brock Shepperd this year, more Justin Giteau from last year. Will that make a marked difference? Last year Giteau didn’t (in that there no measurable or observable strategic changes on either side of the ball). Will Shepperd be the difference? That seems like a big ask, but perhaps the balance in the strategic group is being shifted.

I think that’s important because without change I don’t think they can make the finals. Last year they missed out, and during the season they relied too often on vets doing amazing things (like Rapa and Smell) to cover the cracks in the structure. They won’t be able to drink from that well this year. Ad hoc brilliance isn’t going to cut it. It will need to be caked into the system.

Last season, we interspersed games of incredibly resilient, gutsy defensive efforts with games where we folded and conceded 40 points and also the occasional game where we came back from 20-nil down. Stuart doesn’t seem to know why this happens. Do you have any ideas?
– @doylejopado on twitter

Fuck man if I understood this I would be charging the Raiders $200 an hour for 10 subsidised sessions a season.

How good was Angie McMahon’s last album?
– @doylejopado on twitter

Light, Dark, Light Again is one of the great Australian records that mixes beautifully emotive music with lyrics that mirror the words my shrink says to me. It’s so good for drinking whisky and staring at the wall. Or crying on public transport. I also really enjoyed the EP she released last year. Do yourself a favour. Australian music rules.

While we’re at it here are some other Australian albums released in 2024 you should listen to:

How broken hearted are you on the loss of Puru on a scale of Jordan Turner to Josh Hodgson and do you think Puru will go onto big things at the sharks or was his ceiling not actually as high as we thought?
– Mike S on FB

Man I am pretty sad about that. I think we have zero idea about his ceiling because we’ve never really seen him play in a top level context. A common bias is overrating the weapons we have in the house, so there’s always the risk that we saw the utility of his skills to Canberra and rated him highly because of it. Those skills may not be as useful to a Sharks team that doesn’t have the same attacking constipation the Raiders have. It might be that being a cog in an efficient machine unleashes the best Hohepa can be. I guess we’ll find out this year.

Should Nick Hall return to the green machine podcast and give his giant legs a rest for one night a week?
– Mike S on FB

Scene: Mike walking into Nick’s garage as he punches out a quick 35km run.

Nick: Don’t even ask. I left that life behind me. I’m….I’m happy now.

Mike: We need you back.

Nick: Why [starts chopping wood for some reason]

Mike: Cos…. you’re the best

Nick’s axe perfectly slices a large piece of lumber.

Oooh that’s a good preview. I’ll watch that.

Which round do you think we’ll get our annual Ricky v the playing group bust up?
– @MarkHindle29 on Twitter

I think the key ingredients for a good old fashioned bust up are expectations and failure. We don’t really have them in 2025, at least not in a grandiose level.

What we do have is a bunch of young dudes itching to get on the field, and with the pedigree to create a mess if they don’t get what they want. If you’re watching a bunch of old dudes lose every week, how long until you start getting cranky? That’s our darkest pathway.

So to answer your question round 14.

How do we convince Morgan Smithies to get homesick? And how are we going to spend all this money I assume we have in our cap over the next few years?
– gilby_gillard on Twitter

Canberra are five for five in Englishmen leaving Gilby. Undefeated. Bank it.

Speaking of banking it, I think the Raiders spend their sweet sweet cash upgrading all the kids to big boy deals. I’d love to say it includes bringing a proper rake onboard to play with Owen Pattie. But brother it’s been so long I’ve forgotten what that sunshine feels like.

Is making the 8 a realistic expectation ?…and will Ethan Sanders start in NSW Cup?
– Sean F on FB

On Sanders I’ll have more in the coming weeks, but in short I reckon he’ll start in NSW Cup.

In terms of Canberra’s finals aspirations, in the NRL making the 8 is always a realistic hope, if not expectation. There’s usually 3-4 teams that shunt in and out each couple of years. I’d say we can bank on teams making it, but apart from the ‘Riff and the Storm I wouldn’t do that. There’s too many examples of good teams just carking it for a year for the Milk to enter the year without aiming for the finals.

But in the cold dark reality in which we inhabit those lights will stay off for another year.

Stay warm people.

Do us a solid and like our page on Facebook, follow us on Twitter, or share this on social media and believe in the future with me. Don’t hesitate to send us feedback (dan@sportress.org) or comment below if you think we are stupid. Or if we’re not.