BY DAN

Hello and welcome to our offseason series. In this we’ll take a look at what is likely to be another challenging year. Sometimes it won’t be fun but occasionally it will, because life sucks and we deserve a little peace and a promise of sunshine. Part I on Ethan Strange is here. Part II on the edge depth is here. Part III on Morgan Smithies’ role is here. Part IV on the risks of manufacturing a hooker is here.

Over the Christmas break the Canberra Raiders revealed five new players had been given top 30 roster positions for the 2026 season. It revealed further substantive overhaul of Canberra’s roster during 2025, and flagged an ongoing need for change beyond that.

Providing these guarantees ahead of time has recently become a big part of Canberra’s pitch to emerging players. Michael Asomua and Peter Taateo are previous examples. Noah Martin, included in this grouping, was another we were already aware of. Owen Pattie was also included in this five, and one we were expecting. Joining them were Jake Clydesdale, Joe Roddy and Manaia Whatere.

These players all have their charms. Martin and Pattie have clearly been identified as a huge part of the club’s future. Ditto for Clydesdale. From what we’ve seen of him in Cup, he’s a hard running middle forward. By most accounts he’s one of the best middles at his age, and at 20 he’s starting to amass the physical presence required to compete in first grade. Whatere has been a live-wire in reggies, covering fullback, centre and five-eighth. My expectation is that he projects as a centre long term (it’s where he started Cup last season and where the Raiders have an obvious opportunity). Roddy is a backrower who also appeared in Cup footy towards the end of the 2024 season.

While Pattie and Martin may well push for first grade opportunities in 2025, the others are unlikely to feature until 2026. But their guaranteed presence on a future roster still have ramifications for the Raiders now. It pushes the number of people on Canberra’s 2026 list to 29. That means the the six current players without deals for 2026 would be fighting for one contract. These players include Emre Guler, Tom Starling, Danny Levi, Jordan Martin, Albert Hopoate and Simi Sasagi. You can pick and choose your favourite here, but a couple of things are clear.

It means some tough decisions are going to be made by the club. Emre Guler and Danny Levi already have half a foot out the door so there’s no shock there if they both leave. But Jordan Martin will be 25 by the end of next season, and it makes 2025 all the more pivotal for him. Albert Hopoate loves work like I love Doritos and Sticky loves Albert, so I’m not sure what this will mean for him. Simi Sasagi, who’s come so far since being turned into a backrower upon arrival at the club, would also be without a deal.

It also says some profound things about Canberra’s depth charts. Firstly the challenge at the hooker position is going to get worse. There is scuttlebutt that Tom Starling could be leaving and with only one contract space available, who could blame him. It means Pattie could be the only specialist rake on the 2026 roster. That’s a lot of weight to put on a kid. It would be sad to see Tom Starling walk out the door – he’s not perfect but he’s a perfectly good rotation hooker, excellent defender pound-for-pound. Canberra can’t go forward with one hooker. It suggests even further change as people move in and out in Canberra’s ongoing search for a hooker. Oh the irony.

Potentially letting Martin, Guler, and Papalii go in the same season also suggests a level of comfort with the depth in the middle. That makes sense, but makes the pursuit of Leo Thompson more confusing. It’s possible the deal with Clydesdale came because the one with Thompson didn’t. Clydesdale would join Patuki-Case as part of a young brigade of middles hopefully destined for greatness as part of the new generation. Alongside the experience of Horse and Taps, the Englishness of Smithies, and handsomeness of Pasami Saulo, it suggests they’re happy with the makeup there. You could suggest a similar takeaway on the edge rotation. Roddy comes in, Sasagi goes out. Both would be behind Young, Nicholson and Hosking in the club’s preferred starters, so it speaks to their happiness with that grouping.

There is flexibility here. Peter Taateo is reported as signing on for 2026 but isn’t on the NRL signings tracker. There are suggestions his 2026 deal is a club option. Perhaps there’s an opportunity to weigh his progress against other options. Corey Harawira-Naera is a player option for 2026 and lord knows what’s going on there – I would expect by 2026 they would simply pay out his deal in order to free up the roster spot. Finally Jamal Fogarty has an option for 2026. If Ethans Sanders and Strange make sufficient progress in 2025 it may be that the club decides to spend it’s resources and opportunity cost elsewhere. That would be quite something.

There’s plenty of water to flow under the various bridges relating here before these decisions are required, but we’ll be keeping a close eye. It’s an intriguing marker given it’s so far out.

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