BY DAN

On 1 November players without contracts for the 2026 season will officially go on the market. While there’s a handful of Raiders that will impact, no one will attract more immediate attention than Xavier Savage.

Savage has had the attention of the Milk for some time. Even before the end of his breakout 2024 season the club had identified him as a focus of their retention efforts. They reiterated that recently, and it seemed a fait accompli that a deal would get done. After all in May of this year said he wanted to be a ‘Raider for life’. As recently as earlier this month he said he was ‘happy to stay’. But now we’re approaching the free agency window and there’s no deal in place. Every Canberra fan is asking themselves that question about the “p” word (and that’s not the one that goes with Funkadelic). Is it time to panic?

I don’t think so. Sure there are good ‘pull’ and ‘push’ factors that might see him leave. He may want to move to a team closer to his family in north Queensland. As a Raider his future is on the wing, which is a money limiting move. He could go to a different team and pursue that fullback money, and he might even get it. During the season Coach Stuart told the press that he was about ready to cut off Savage before last pre-season. Perhaps this moment burns stronger in Savage’s heart than he’s let on publicly.

But I’m not convinced these factors are likely to see Savage sign a new deal with a different club. I think it’s also pretty clear that he’s found his perfect role and utilisation in Canberra. We’ve written this before, but Savage was their best and most consistent winger in 2024. He was first in tries across the club, second in try involvements, third in line-breaks, fourth in tackle busts. He’s made all the improvements requested. His yardage game has improved markedly, reflected in his career high in running metres. He did this through a combination of increased power and more intelligent, refined running approaches. He even improved his defence, notably displayed in a host of try-saving efforts this year that displayed a newfound physicality. He has done all this while keeping his top-line speed, a weapon that the Raiders occasionally use to great effect, and would do well to use more. Like me and Mrs Jones, he’s got a thing going on. It would be a risk to try and re-establish this somewhere else.

Leaving to try and play fullback is a possibility but not a likelihood. There’s a number of proven fullbacks floating around, reducing the likelihood a team will pay Savage the extra money on a guess. Would you risk your cap and most important position on Savage, or would you try to sign one of the following players who might not play fullback next year: Sua Fa’alogo, AJ Brimson, Jayden Campbell, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Taine Tuaupiki, Trai Fuller, Tristan Sailor, Lehi Hopoate, Fletcher Sharpe, Clint Gutherson? Shit even Ryan Papenhuyzen is hitting the market. Even Canberra has three players more likely to start at one that X. It’s a buyers market, and there’s not really any buyers.

I’m not saying each and every of those players would be better at fullback than him, but all have played it more recently and with more success. It would take a brave team that would take the bet on Savage to fill that role when there are literal representative players they could get. There not being a clear pathway to fullback money elsewhere, combined with the fact the Raiders will likely pay him more to play wing (because you know they will) suggests his best earning future is in Canberra.

The relationship with Stuart is the most interesting aspect. Stuart seems to have a ‘moment’ in his connection with players where home truths lead to a point of no return. Obviously it’s hard to tell from outside the tent but evidently home truths are told, and either the trust that Stuart will get the best out of them is severed or strengthened. Some players leave (like Tevita Pangai Jr) and others stay and thrive. Josh Papalii, Joe Tapine, and most recently Corey Horsburgh have all had these moments and chosen to go forward with Stuart. And for the most part they’ve thrived (obviously wait and see with Horse).

So if there’s not big money out there for him, or better opportunity, and if he doesn’t really want to leave, why hasn’t a deal been done when we’ve been talking about it since May? I think the most likely outcome is that Savage wants to see his value on the open market. Last extension he signed in August 2022, before he hit the open market, so this may be a necessary step from his management’s perspective to ensure there’s clarity about his earning potential. The only way to prove to the Raiders he can get more elsewhere is through the official offers that come in post November 1. For the club’s part they may be essentially wanting to see what that number is so they can Bunnings it (beat it by 10 per cent!).

None of that is certain, and there plenty of guessing by yours truly in this assessment. But outside of our usual paranoia I haven’t seen a good case for Savage leaving. The delay does increase the uncertainty. Having players on the open market never feels good, particularly when they’re as talented as Xavier. But the factors that will keep him in Canberra just seem too strong.

That’s lucky for us. X is just 22 and only just hitting his straps. He’s got better things and higher honours in his future. This deal (and the next one) will hopefully cover the best years of his career. Hopefully they’re in Canberra.

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Feature image courtesy of James Croucher