BY DAN

The coming era of the Canberra Raiders will be one full of youth and promise. Turning that promise into something more tangible is not guaranteed. Many a ‘sure thing’ has been left in the wake of the cruel power of reality. Many a young legend has ended as part myth, part cautionary tale. How do ensure that as many of these emerging talents lose that somewhat patronising moniker and just become legit good footy players?

One of the approaches Canberra are clearly taking is going with ‘more’. The more rolls of the dice the better chance you’ll hit some 7 and 11s like Ice Cube having a good day. The Raiders aren’t holding back. A team that was the 7th youngest in the competition in 2024 is only getting younger.

This is the list of players in the top 30 23 and under at the start of the season (1 November): Asomua, Hopoate, Martiota, Myles Martin, Mooney, Nicholson, Patuki-Case, Puru (hopefully), Sanders, Savage, Smithies, Stewart, Strange, Tamale, Weekes). 15 players 23 or under. Add Owen Pattie to that mix and it tips into a majority being able to appear in the Olympic soccer team. Compare that to three (3) players 30 or over (Taps, Papa, Fog) and you can see that Canberra have chosen to take more bites at the talent apple than Eve binge eating.

All these aren’t going to pay off. That’s just a reality we’ve seen borne out time and time again. I won’t disparage players that didn’t quite make it by comparing them to those that did, but we all had a favourite who we had big hopes now playing in QCup or Group Six. Decisions about who is next are made when these people are literally kids. At that age these players can often dominate lower levels of football just by being more athletically gifted. Then they get to the top level where everyone is athletically gifted and suddenly what matters is whether the skills that got them this far are sufficient, or whether they can build something more.

Another part of the program has been trusting their developmental approach. Canberra’s is clear. Rightly or wrongly there’s an emphasis on building key skills in lower grades, taking the time to let players find their way against men in low-stakes environments. Mooney, Savage, Puru et al have all spent more time playing Cup footy than they, or often us, would like. But the club’s plan is clear and their expertise is greater than ours in identifying when players are ready (I think). There are exceptions to this. Ethan Strange and Hudson Young only had one full season in the lower grade before becoming mainstays of first grade. But even Young still made appearances in NSW Cup footy three seasons deep into his first grade career.

As part of this Cup footy experience there’s a tendency to give players exposure to more, or different, positions than they’d play in top line. Sometimes this is out of necessity. Sometimes it’s about finding something more in them. Trey Mooney spent all of 2022 playing second row. Partly this was because of the lack of options for the Milk. But it was also because the club wanted to see if spending time there would expand his skill set. At 24 Joe Tapine spent 2018 playing on the edge, after shifting between lock, bench, and second row in the previous three years of his career. I’m no expert, but I can’t help but see Noah Martin as a middle, despite he spent all of 2024 playing on the edge in Cup footy. I guess time will tell.

This is a fascinating approach, giving both stability and instability to players. Sure they’ll be patient with you getting to the top grade, but you’ll be spinning plates in the lower levels. It’s hard to say if that prepares players for first grade or not. But it does show an openess to where they best fit. Xavier Savage started at centre, was meant to be the saviour at fullback, and is now an elite winger. So many forwards transitioned between middle and edge before finding their home. The risk is not having a clear idea of what your best is when you come to the top grade. The benefit is being able to do any role asked.

This typology is only that; a sense of things, an attempt to put into place what has been. I doubt Stick or those around him are so rigid or direct about it. Rather there is likely an attempt to muddle through, the feel out players needs and skills through the process of information gathering. It’s why they shift, and play so much reggies. The club is gathering evidence on who they are before deploying them. Of course this is an optimistic reading. There’s just as much evidence of Stuart being unwilling to embrace change, scared to risk the performance of the first grade side on hope that what is coming is better. He doesn’t have a choice now. Change is here, and in the morning its making waffles.

There’s a temptation to say there’s proof in the pudding that this approach. Xavier Savage. Hudson Young. Horse. Taps. Kris. Bert. Starling. These are all players that have been built in this developmental approach. It is a bit of comfort to think of those successes, both in the context of those to come, but also the to-and-fro of Ethan Strange at six this year.

It’s also hard to parse the causality there. Horse and X were about to go before they stayed. How close was that tether to snapping? How does one attribute success of the system against success of the individual to spite it? I tend to think Stuart has shown he’s capable of turning talent into first graders time and time again. But I also think that out of self-preservation, a hope that the pain and growth and bumps that are coming will be worth it.

Another problem only solved by the passage of time. We won’t know if it doesn’t work until it we’re already there. Even the candle seller dies in the dark. The pathway is locked in, and Stuart has done a job of selling low expectations for next year that it would take utter catastrophe for a new pathway or regime to be adopted any time soon. This is the way. Hold on. This ride is always bumpy.

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