BY DAN

A glance at the NRL ladder will tell you that making the finals this year is going to be tough. The Canberra Raiders find them on seven wins. A conservative estimate would suggest they need to win six of their final eight games to get an invite to the party in September. There draw is a hard but worthy and walkable path and they play plenty of teams with the same dream. There’s only one thing left to do.

Run.

By gah it’s been a while. Remember when the Raiders would inexplicably have end-of-season runs? In 2006 were 11th after 18 rounds, won five of their last seven and made the finals. In 2008 they were were twelfth after 17 rounds, Todd Carney refused to stop drinking, and they won seven of nine to make the finals with some blistering attacking footy. In 2010 they were 14th on the ladder and and then won eight of nine to make the finals, won our first final and then *LARGE SIGH*. In 2012 it was eight of ten to make the playoffs. You could also point to 2016 but given it was twelve of fourteen I’d more argue that it was just a good season. But let’s include it because it’s fun.

Of course there a more storied versions. In 1989 they won the competition on the back of winning their last five to squeak into the top five, before winning four finals in a row at the Sydney Footy Stadium to bring glory and a soul to our fair city. In 1991 they dragged the broken bones and torn muscles through mud to win seven of their last eight to make the finals and all the way to the grand final.

What makes these runs all the more amazing is the seeming randomness that engendered many them. In 1989, 1991 and 2016 they were just legit good footy teams that were either not quite performing to their potential because of outrageous misfortune (1991) or because they’d not quite worked out they were fucking elite (1989 and 2016). But the rest came from nowhere, only plausible in hindsight. With the chaos around Todd Carney in 2008 there was only inklings to suggest that Terry Campese was about to teach us all to love again. In 2010 their run was preceded by four straight losses. In 2012 they’d been beaten forty to blot at home and everyone assumed Coach David Furner was about to get the sack. Then they decided to be heaps better on the run home.

Trying to find a through line of what makes these happen is a mistake because we can’t really look under the hood so to speak. It’s just vibes (Todd Carney had bad ones! Sam Williams had immaculate ones!) and teleological thinking. That’s what makes them so fun. They’re like a surprise present from a partner, or if you’re feeling dark, the random reward of the pokie that gets you coming back for more because the bright lights make your soul feel whole for a brief period of time. It can always turn around, until it doesn’t. But it might!

That does tell you where things are for the Milk right now. Suggesting they’ll make a run rests entirely on Jamal and Zac turning it all around. We’ve written about how important they are and how much better the team were with them present (they were elite in attack and defence with them, without them they’re the opposite), but they’re very behind the eight ball now. There’s not really space to slip up.

Particularly when you consider their draw. The thing about the next two months is that the nature of the draw makes the outcome obvious. Canberra are in a battle with the Knights, Dragons, Sea-Eagles, Warriors and Broncos for the last spot in the eight. In this run they play the Dragons, Sea-Eagles, Warriors, as well as top eight sides like the Bulldogs, Roosters, Cowboys and Panthers. There’s enough four point games mixed in there to mean that if they do win six they’ll make the finals.

But you’d be a brave person to put money on that happening. This season has been one of multiple Canberras, and while they will have all the ingredients back post bye to make the cake that tasted so sweet earlier in the year, assuming that it will just *be* because the same factors are there is unrealistic. The other teams in that group have had bright moments more recently than the Raiders. Shit the last convincing win the Raiders had was in April. Seriously. The iPhone hadn’t even been invented (sorry just a reflex for when people say something hasn’t happened in ages).

And to an extent it’s ok. Many will be circumspect about the Raiders missing the finals. We, and anyone broadly associated with this beautiful mess, have noted that this is a dual horizon team, building tomorrow’s champion through today’s lessons. Finals would be a ‘nice to have’ rather than a must. The whole point is what’s on the other side of the sunset right?

While I’m under no illusions of how the Raiders will do this season should they make the finals the experience and culture of playing good footy, and getting a taste of finals, could be a significant benefit for the players that are hopefully going to take the team back to the promise land in the coming seasons. Even if competitions aren’t being won, it’s about getting reps in testing footy. Learning hard lessons. Playing when the metaphorical lights sear your retinas.

But that’s very much getting ahead of ourselves. Four losses on the trot and generally squandering a good position can only be overcome by winning games. That starts with beating the Warriors first, and worrying about the rest later. They have all their horses (except the red one *shakes fist at cloud*) and no more excuses. If they can’t beat the Warriors in Canberra then the task goes from near impossible to its event horizon.

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