BY DAN

The Canberra Raiders have been stuck in the mud for weeks now, a moribund attack unable to get outside its own edges. Centres and wingers have become expensive jewellery, nice to look but functionless at the business end. Halves have no space to operate. The exchange rate of crash balls to shifting movements has risen to such levels you’d think OPEC had got involved.

Canberra needs a better way.

This is a relatively recent phenomenon. Canberra didn’t start the season with a 2016 offence, but they did seem to be building something a bit more expansive while Jamal Fogarty while running the show. He was consistently found at first receiver, a crucial link between the middle and the handsome boys standing in the wilderness. His presence compensated for a hooker rotation so stuck in the middle that Stealer’s Wheel is suing for royalties. Width was also garnered by the expansive play of Morgan Smithies, before teams worked out his passing wasn’t the creative threat that it had seemed (and been suggested) earlier in the season. After six rounds (i.e. while Jamal was healthy) 43 per cent of the Raiders’ play the balls occurred outside of the middle third (per The Rugby League Eye Test). That was the second most in the competition.

Without Fogarty it’s put Canberra in a bind. Their young halves are both more sixes than sevens, more comfortable playing a pass or two wider. Smithies was initially designed to get them the ball there but teams are jumping the route so to speak, and old Morgs isn’t exactly about to tap-dance through an over-pursuing defence. The ability to get wide has stagnated. The number of play the balls outside the middle third dropped back to a much more middle-of-the-road 37 per cent by round 11 (again per The Rugby League Eye Test).

The Raiders have increasingly moved Jordan Rapana into first receiver to provide that link to the wider halves. But that has its own problems. Jordy should really be a special treat in attack; something you have a little of, but is a bit rich if you jam too much of it in your gob. Instead he’s become a central player, meaning he’s trying a lot of things. Sometimes these work (hello field goals!), but equally in an attempt to get outside the middle third the Milk take on his personality. Which, while a very fun uncle, isn’t exactly a stable way to live.

So the result is watching either Jordy tell you about his latest scheme or Danny Levi trying to manipulate and create with the forwards in the middle, something as successful as your other uncle’s magic tricks. You know the ones where he’s still looking through his pack of cards trying to work out just where your card had gone, while you’re busy wondering why it never stuck with the lady he used to hang out with.

Ok look weird metaphors aside the point is the Raiders need to find a better way to manufacture width. Simply running harder into the brick wall in the middle may work some weeks but there needs to be a plan B. Canberra also have to come up with a solution to the likely absence of Tom Starling and for one shining hour there is an opportunity for a simple fix for a complex problem.

There are two broad options for replacing Starling. Firstly you could bringing one of your ‘second-string’ hookers. I put that in scare quotes because both Zac Woolford and Adrian Trevilyan are superior at the actual job of being a rake than either Levi or Starling. Woolford is the best ruck manipulator the club has, and offers a crisp twenty metre pass from the ground that could provide the Milk with easy width. He’s been critical at points in the past at unlocking Canberra when it’s previously got stuck in this middle rut, and was at the helm of the most fluid attack (the 2022 version) the Raiders have managed since Hodgo inspired a city to hope.

The club’s lack of interest in Woolford since Danny Levi’s arrival has been as confusing as their love for the personification of the Mendoza line they keep picking. Presumably they like his relative athleticism, something that is reality more in appearance than reality. He can definitely run better than Woolford though, something Zac should do more. But in creativity, in passing ability, and in defence the choice should be clear. Woolford’s absence from Cup on the weekend suggests the club might be ready to lean into him again, at least for a week.

If that wasn’t the driving factor (i.e. he’s injured and we didn’t know it), then Adrian Trevilyan is another option that could be a solution. He has a long pass from the ruck that is so alluring and illicit it feels like it should be sold in Fyshwick. He has been a promised potential for years now. Unlike Woolford, who the club seems to be letting leave, Trevilyan fits perfectly with the generation of talent they’re building. Bringing him in now would not only solve an immediate problem but starting the ground work for solutions of Christmas future. It will also show whether the potential is worth keeping around beyond the expiry of his development deal this season.

If the Raiders aren’t willing to make change in the ruck then they need to do so at 13. Hohepa Puru can bring width at first receiver, cover for Danny Levi’s constantly burning lungs and porous middle defence at hooker while also adding an extra body to the middle rotation. The last bits not something that necessarily can be solved without Stuart abandoning his hard-and-fast rotations (it’s amazing that in a game where the middle was cooked after 30 minutes Trey Mooney didn’t get on until the 50th minute) but it does mean the option is there for him to try something different.

Like Trevilyan, Puru is a player who should have a long future with the Raiders, and like the young rake he’s also potentially off contract after this season. He fits perfectly with the future generation, and even has potential as leader, something only further demonstrated by the club entrusting him to captain the reggies team all year. This characteristic may also be useful for a club that needs someone on-field that doesn’t treat every problem like a medieval doctor (blood or fire, they are our two options).

While these are mostly the plans of a dreamer, Woolford’s absence from Cup footy on the weekend suggests he might actually get a run. But don’t get carried away – Levi will be there too, and Stuart is just as likely to play him 80 as he is to give Woolford significant minutes. Starling’s minutes have always been determined by how and when Levi’s energy meter runs out. Twenty five minutes of Zac at the end of the game may not be enough to fix a problem.

An additional fix comes from the return of Corey Horsburgh. He finally played Cup footy last weekend (why the fuck would we smokescreen Cup footy? What the actual fuck is that about?) and as we noted in the review, there are some solutions to the above problems that come from his inclusion. He’s at least as good a passer as Smithies with a much more powerful running game (and offloads, we need more of those). He could add some width, tie up some of the middle defence and allow Rapana to spend more time where a fullback should be. But like Woolford, even if he’s chosen in first grade it’s unlikely that will translate to big minutes. At least not immediately.

Limited hooker and middle rotations that include Woolford and Horsburgh will have to do at least until Jamal Fogarty returns from injury. Stuart has a clear plan for this side and is trying to manage bit parts around youth development. This isn’t an easy task, and adding the variability of untrusted players (regardless of my views on whether they are trustworthy or not) is probably a step too far for now. If Stuart has a solution I suspect it’s less doing different things and more doing things better.

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