BY ROB

We come from the land of the ice and snow, from the midnight sun where the hot springs flow

Ancient Canberra Proverb

While the nation’s capital is struggling to live up to the midnight sun and hot springs part of the equation it’s certainly gotten to grips with being the land of ice and snow. Snow hasn’t physically materialised but Tuesday saw the region plunge into a maelstrom of icy winds. The mercury will struggle to crack 15° all week long.

Game day conditions will be milder, at least in one sense. The winds currently whipping across the city will have eased, leaving a calm in their wake. If you’re from warmer climes and think this is a reprieve you’re sorely mistaken.

Canberra Stadium is somewhat unique in the sporting landscape. It’s the highest stadium above sea level in the nation, and unlike other stadiums that are built from the ground up it’s literally a bowl scooped out of Bruce Ridge. Due to its design and location it has two distinct traits – the ability to channel a vortex of icy winds and to radiate pure cold from the concrete it’s made from.

Into this icebox come the Cowboys, fresh off a pasting from a possibly resurgent Warriors outfit. Logic dictates that a team from the tropics would struggle in Canberra mid-June, but the stats say otherwise. The Raiders last beat the Cows in 2020, and they haven’t defeated the northerners here since 2018.

If there’s one thing trending in the Raiders favour it’s the Cowboys being wildly inconsistent across the first half of 2024. They opened their season with three straight wins, stumbled, regathered and then fell flat on their collective faces for five games in a row. They finally managed to get things back on track in round eleven and have wobbled since then.

Despite what the ladder says the Raiders and the Cows are very much on the same wavelength – 7 wins each with a negative differential. Both sides could be a chance of sneaking into the 8, but only if they fix that negative for & against.

With a full(ish) compliment of forwards Canberra will most likely look to dominate through the middle, bending the line with the likes of Tapine and Guler before sending more mobile runners to hunt for tackle busts.

Changes

Simi Sasagi has dropped back to NSW Cup due to the return of Hudson Young. Young takes up his spot in the second row which sees Ata Mariota drop back to the bench. Papali’i has been named in the starting 13, but there’s every chance Stick could switch him with Guler Friday afternoon.

The Opposition

It seems to be a real dice-roll as to which Cowboys side will show up this year, but knowing Canberra’s luck it will be the in-form & focussed version that makes an appearance Friday evening. The Cows have a habit of out-grinding the Raiders in recent times, and if the Raiders wish to improve their differential they’ll need to be tough in defence and sharp in attack. Beware the Cows ability to execute a swift cross-field shift.

Match-ups

Kaeo Weekes vs Chad Townsend

Canberra’s scintillating stand-in vs the Cowboys conductor. Weekes has been the best kind of find in recent weeks, a depth signing who has genuine skill and ability. If the Raiders can get an overlap going on his edge expect him to hit the afterburners if an opportunity shows itself. Townsend may be in his footy twilight, but he remains as ever a deft kicker and an astute organiser. He’ll be aware that the Raiders fell afoul of two 40/20s against the Dolphins, so watch for kicks around the 4th tackle.

Rookie Radar

Every game Strange gives us a solid performance garnished with one epic play – in round 13 it was his blistering tackle on a kick chase that drove the ‘Phins fullback 2 metres towards his own in-goal. Mooney has continued his trend of producing big impact from small minutes.

In Conclusion

A win here would see the Raiders staying sweet in the 8, but they’ll need to function as a true cohesive unit to get the 2 points. If they can stifle the Cows attack they can build themselves a platform in good territory to go on the offensive.

Raiders by 8!

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