BY DAN

The Canberra Raiders victory against the Bulldogs was courageous and chaotic. Silly and spirited. In the moment it was exhilarating, like standing in a summer thunderstorm and just letting the rain cleanse your soul. But as the clouds have parted what is revealed is an opportunity.

Canberra are now 6 wins and 4 losses. Two weeks out from their next bye, winning one game of their next two will ensure that they enter the origin period with more wins than losses. That’s good in terms of their immediate position (though you don’t get to play finals in June), but also in terms of pushing them closer and closer to the return of other players that will bolster their stocks. Canberra are now a third of the way to the possible returns of Zac Hosking and Jamal Fogarty, and their record of wins relative to losses is basically the same as when they left. Each win gives them a little more time to improve before ‘ladder’ pressure takes it toll.

That’s been built by a lot of things but over this period Canberra has so many things to be grateful for, not least the performance of their young halves pairing. Kaeo Weekes and Ethan Strange’s efforts continue to improve week on week. Against the Bulldogs Weekes’ in particular did an exemplary impression of Fogarty, routinely booting the ball long down the field and allowing the Raiders’ kick chase to consolidate field position, and generally sacrificing his best instincts (to play a bit of ad hoc footy) for the sake of the team needing someone to guide them around the park. He’s yet to get the right side cohesive in anything approaching a cohesive attacking movement, but there’s been glimpses and victories like Friday’s buy him and the team more time to work that out.

Weekes’ play has allowed Strange to pick and choose his moments, and boy has he done that well. Setting up match-winning tries in back to back games is not something to sneeze at. Since Fogarty went down most of Canberra’s best moments in attack outside of those moments have come from him getting a bit of space and an opportunity to take on the line. He seems to be forming a good relationship with Hudson Young running off his left shoulder. Making that more consistent by being able to do it with less space, and building the confidence to take shots earlier in the game and further from goal, will be the next steps for him (and maybe the coaching staff in how they game plan.

Canberra still need to find a way to more readily score points. Canberra have scored 11 tries off 9 line breaks across 280 minutes of football since Fogarty was last on the field. Three meat pies have come straight from drops, another from an intercept, another from a crash play and three from kicks. The two that Strange created for Young on the weekend were the closest thing to sustainable attack they’ve demonstrated in weeks.

Unlike say their opposition from last Friday, the Raiders are having a lot of problems getting to their edges in attack. Distribution through the middle third is put in the hands of props and nines whose service is imperfect. Morgan Smithies is hard working and can pass but he’s a shifter not a creator. Levi and Starling can both take fifteen on the ground given a sniff of daylight, but neither can claim to have an accurate or scything long pass.

It means the outside jam of defences can hem the Milk in. It means they end up tucking and running through the middle, unable to throw back-to-back, something that the last four teams they’ve played have done to them routinely. Canberra throw a shot, then need to settle, often two tackles in a row to drag defenders towards the middle in order to hopefully make space on the edge.

There’s no easy solution to this. Corey Horsburgh will return *at some point* at that will help distribution through the middle third. Finding a spot for Hohepa Puru could also help but that feels a forlorn hope than a practical suggestion, much like the potential return of the Raiders’ rakes that can pass (Zac Woolford or Adrian Trevilyan). But given the strategic predilections of the coaching staff I can’t see much change beyond the Red Horse’s return.

So then it comes back to that old chest nut of blowing the doors off them both to create holes in the middle but also to create some space for the edges to play. It’s not surprise that Strange looked most threatening with a bit of space around him. That came from the fatigue of a small opposition having to deal with Joey Taps, an angry Josh Papalii and Trey Mooney in the second half. That’ll be harder against bigger and more disciplined teams like the Roosters and the ‘Phins.

They’ll also likely have to do that next week without Papalii, who I presume will take a week instead of challenging two for his hip drop on Viliame Kikau. Luckily Joe Tapine still exists, and Trey Mooney keeps showing that he’s ready to eat more minutes. His 7 runs for 79 metres on the weekend understates his impact. If Horse or Pasami Saulo aren’t healthy to replace Papa then maybe we get my Puru dream after all. We’ll see.

Canberra also need to tighten up their middle defence, if only to take the stress of their edges. They were cooked against the Dogs, on account of having to defend short multiple players for long periods of time. Danny Levi had six misses in the game, and currently has the highest miss rate amongst hookers across the competition. Joey Taps has the fifth most misses among props. Emre Guler is 12th worst among props on average misses per game. This is an imperfect measure, but it reflects something we’re seeing on the field. Teams that play with pace and a bit of width are testing the effectiveness of the Raiders’ central protection. They’re not getting rolled, they’re getting rolled around. And it contributed to the unencumbered way the Dogs, and the teams before them, were able to shift the ball.

It’s also alarming how much the Raiders are relying on Whitehead in defence. He’s been immense in the last two games, as good as any defensive effort he’s had for the Milk. Given his career that is saying something. There’s no option but to ride him, but the man is 34 and held together with blutak and good vibes. Cross your fingers and toes people.

So there’s things to work on, that is plain to see. But these last two victories have bought the Raiders a gift of time and an opportunity. Each win they scrounge grafts another week or two of oxygen that allows space to fix these small issues. There is more time to build.

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