By Rob

The Raiders impressed with wins across the opening two rounds, were valiant in a close loss in the third and then collapsed in a heap in their fourth round match against the Sharks on Easter Sunday. After skipping out to an 18-0 lead courtesy of some absolutely narcoleptic Sharks defence a familiar psychological gremlin pried open their minds and made itself comfortable for the remainder of the game.

Mental fortitude will be one of the three pillars of success, along with patience and ball security/completion this Sunday night when the Green Machine host Parra at Bruce. The Raiders need to do several things on the (self) discipline front: pay attention to what the ref is penalising, and refrain from doing whatever it is too much. They also need to assume that the bounce of the ball WON’T go their way, which shouldn’t be too hard given how officiating is going across the league in general.

Ball control and security is a big one after last week’s fiasco – too many players are either carrying the Steeden too loosely or in an unprotected position. Pass receipts being fumbled are a symptom of receivers thinking too far ahead – eyes on the ball is one of the foundation principles of junior league for a reason. Play-the-balls are now becoming a fine art (despite the crazy amount of latitude on pinging poor attempts). You don’t want to be so slow that you cost your team momentum, but you also don’t want to cruel your chances with blunder whilst trying to stand up to play it.

Hopefully Sticky has spent the week drilling these most basic one-percenters into his charges. Make as many metres as you can, check your field position and find the most appropriate way to end the set. Given that the Eels/Tigers match on Monday was also a drop-fest it’s clear that whoever controls the ball this round will have a much better shot at claiming those two comp points, plus some much needed dignity.

Changes

Coach Stuart has gone for minimal changes this round, mostly necessitated by Zac Hosking being on the 11 day protocol for concussion (the lord giveth you second rowers, and then he bloody well takes them away again). With Smelly still injured and CHN no longer an option the Raiders are having to get creative, which is why Ata Mariota is now starting in Hosking’s spot, with Raider #395 Simi Sasagi debuting on the bench. Sasagi has utility in his game and it will be interesting to see how many minutes Stuart divides between him and Mariota.

The Opposition

The Eels were within reach of a sneaky penalty goal win on Monday, which points to how they may fare the next several rounds without Moses. Clint Gutherson tried to do everything he could to drag his team to victory, but couldn’t overcome a mountain of errors and the rookie star power of Lachlan Galvin. Having said that the worst thing the Raiders can do is assume that this game is a gimme – the Eels are no strangers to overcoming footy adversity.

Match-ups

Joseph Tapine vs Junior Paulo

The Raiders captain-elect up against his one time (2.5 seasons) teammate. Tapine remains one of Canberra’s rock-solid producers, pumping out strong numbers even when the Raiders are getting towelled up. He might need to inject a touch more dialogue into his role as captain, but you can’t deny that his effort and actions are those of a leader. Paulo has matured into one of the best props in the game, always threatening to release a support player into open space by way of an offload. The Raiders will need to keep him under wraps or they’ll risk a speedster getting loose in the back field.

Matt Timoko vs Bailey Simonsson

Yet another Raider vs a former teammate. Timoko might’ve been slightly off his game last week, but he remains a formidable weapon on the Raiders right edge. If Canberra can settle into completion and possession look for them spreading it to Timoko early in a bid to get him one on one with unprepared defenders. Simonsson was once a possible future star in green, before fate saw him cut loose to join the Eels, where he’s had something of a do-over. He’ll be relishing a chance to show his former club what they’re missing out on.

Rookie Radar

While not a rookie by NRL standards it’ll be exciting to see what Simi Sasagi can bring to the side in his first game in green. Schiller and Savage have some ground to make up after costly errors last week, particularly X whose hands did not want to co-operate at times.

In Conclusion

The Raiders will never get a better opportunity than a Moses-less Eels. Add a missing Bryce Cartwright to the equation and Canberra have real chance to right the longship before it rolls over and spills them into cool Autumn waters. Sets must be completed and game plans adhered to – if they are then we’ll most likely be adding another W to the ledger in 2024.

Raiders by 12

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