BY DAN

Two games, two comprehensive wins. Points have come with comforting regularity. The defence has looked as robust as it has at any point in memory. A quiet confidence evident in a team well balanced between youth and experience. Depth out the wazoo and a Cup footy team dismantling oppositions. They’re on the top of the ladder after a gap so long you could buy it a drink. After an off-season in which most outside of Canberra had talked about the Raiders for the spoon there’s only one question to ask.

How does our ass taste I mean, are the Raiders good?

Of course this isn’t just a Sydney phenomena. It was hard to look past last year in which Canberra were bottom four in both attack and defence and wonder how subtracting representative players would fix that. 2023 felt like a mirage. Last season points felt like finding a seat on packed public transport. In the two games this season they’ve been as constant as beers at the pub on a sunny day. Need another? It’s my round. Last year defence felt like two parents trying to manage a houseful of toddlers. This year we’ve got them all on screen-time so we have some quiet time to drink coffee and stare at the lawn (looks good but needs work FYI).

Ladder position doesn’t really matter right now but obviously Canberra is sitting pretty. It’s only two games but the Raiders are second in points scored and try assists, first in possession and completion percentage (ninety-fucking-five percent), fourth in line breaks, fifth in metres and second in post-contact metres. They’ve won two games by 13 plus when last year they did this as often as I went for a jog (man I need to get healthy). Jamal Fogarty looks every bit the halfback unencumbered by having to play to his halves’ partner’s peculiarities, like a divorcee freed to get their groove back. Ethan Strange is proving Sticky’s assessment that “he’s ready” more than right; it’s downright threatening (he’s also maybe proving our Wighton Theory a sneaky bit right?). Zac Hosking might be the signing of the year, and that feels insulting to Morgan Smithies, who works so hard there’s rumours he mowed the lawn of GIO stadium last night because he felt he needed the extra work.

Canberra still might not be good. As one astute commentator put below our Review of Saturday’s game ‘we beat of team of witches hats calm down’. It’s solid advice. The Tigers aren’t going to be good (again) this year. They’re middle isn’t consistent enough and their young halves don’t have the benefit of a Jamal Fogarty to offer a guiding hand (I love Aidan Sezer with all my heart, but there’s only so much you can do sitting on the bench). They’re a project, and the verdict it out on whether Benji knows what he’s doing. They also beat the Knights who have been bog average for years outside of a 10 game Kalyn Ponga inspired hot streak last season.

The change and improvement already made by this side is obvious but it’s equally clear is that this is a work in progress. The game plan is simple but effective at this point. Good teams will find the cracks and the Raiders will have evolve. I’ve often said that Sticky’s best work tends to happen in the pre-season. Being able to adjust and expand on what they have will be critical to continued success. The small sample size of incremental change we have so far isn’t enough to bank on.

The fun thing is that Canberra are now entering a period where we can test that exact theory. The Warriors have played two almost certain top 6 teams and while they’ve lost they’ve hardly looked poor in doing so. If Xavier Coates wasn’t Bob Beamon reincarnated they might have beaten the Storm at their home on the weekend, something usually reserved for the best teams (and the Raiders?). This game will be in New Zealand in front of a sold out Friday night crowd in Christchurch. The Warriors will be desperate, a season not quite teetering but certainly not as balanced as it should be. This isn’t so much a test as a doctor looking for polyps.

They’ll be doing so with a reversion to week one’s lineup (with Seb Kris’ HIA likely to keep him out at least one game). But it speaks to where they are that while the likely change is clear (Hopoate to centre, Cotric back in) and that depth below that pushing to make it less so (James Schiller keeps dominating Cup footy, and the side is doing even better). After them the Raiders play the Sharks, also away (what’s Sunday night in the Shire like? Can’t imagine it will be packed with Raiders fans). Canberra have done well against Cronulla in recent seasons – primarily because a soft middle is precisely the thing they like to take advantage of. But the Sharks have shown central resolve so far this year that suggests the Milk’s match-up advantages might not be what they once were.

It’s wild we’re even asking this question. This was meant to be a rebuild year. It still should be. The team must continue working towards a timeline with a horizon that is beyond this season. But that doesn’t mean they can’t keep pushing to improve now. Sometimes things happen ahead of schedule. Sometimes small blips of sunshine are just that. The sample so far simply doesn’t allow us to be definitive. It’s probably still a team for the future but a man can dream right?

So if the previous two games were more about a comfort that the Raiders have more to offer than we previously thought, the next two are likely to establish more clearly where they fit in the league’s pecking order. But one battle at a time. First come the Warriors.

Are the Raiders good? Well, we’re about to find out.

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