BYDAN

The Canberra Raiders may have finally got their big fish backrower, with reports that Luciano Leilua will be leaving North Queensland for the superior climate of Canberra.

If this goes ahead (bruh, it’s Hoops) it marks the end of what has been a saga that makes Lord of the Rings look like a novella. From Bateman and Harawira-Naera to Fifita, Wilton, Katoa, Kolomatangi and Fifita (again, and again), this has been a long process.

Luciano should be a ‘forever’ solution and at 900k a season he better be. I doubt the Raiders will be picking up all of that tab. When salary cap scenarios force players from clubs (as is broadly happening with Leilua at the Cowboys) there’s usually an agreement where the home side takes some of the freight. My guess is Canberra’s number is closer to 750k a season which is a lot, but likely entirely reasonable within what the Milk’s existing cap structure is.

As a player Luciano fills a big need; someone in the backrow that can sit on Jamal Fogarty’s shoulder and terrify defences with his mere presence. He’s a strong ball-runner, the kind of player that can break tackles and show remarkable agility for someone his size. His 2.69 tackle busts a game would immediately make him Canberra’s most damaging backrower. He’s 40 plus post contact metres are likely inflated by time spent in the middle but still reflect an ability to punch a hole in the line. Put him next to Matt Timoko and all of a sudden defences are being asked to make incredibly difficult decisions. Either player can roll their man one on one. Jamal Fogarty will be giddy.

Defensively he’s always been capable and occasionally brutal. 92 per cent tackle efficiency is elite on an edge (though that number is imperfect because of how much time he spends in the middle where misses are rarer because people are running straight at you). But he’s capable enough here. It may not be peak Bateman/Whitehead but it’s a good start.

The downside risk is that Leilua doesn’t perform to his value. If there’s an on-field critique of Leilua it’s that he hasn’t always been as focused on his football as he should. He’s been inconsistent, and never settled in a role. That’s been a big reason he’s been the odd man out twice now. Stuart has a good track record in getting the best out of players that need to be pointed in the right direction.

The cool thing is the club’s roster is suitably structured to support this kind of big swing. The Raiders’ acquisition of Zac Hosking means that if Leilua is a total bust they won’t be left in the ‘luch’ (guys, come on, that’s pretty good. Pronounce it looch. Work with me here). If he does work out Hosking can still provide depth at backrow and the middle (and, at a pinch, in the outside backs). All of a sudden a weakness is a strength. Kudos to the recruitment team.

There is a question of Leilua as a person. He’s had his share of off-field issues including family violence charges that were withdrawn by police. We acknowledge these to note they exist. Apart from that I have neither the expertise nor the character sufficient to properly address them. I hope we never hear anything like this about him (or anyone) ever again.

I don’t know if this deal will happen. The agreement with the Dragons seemed sealed. Call me pessimistic but there’s still a possibility that Canberra ‘hitting the front’ is more about the Dragons and Cows being too far apart in how much each is willing to chip in. This may just be about getting the Dragons to show a bit of urgency.

We’ll see I guess. Canberra have waited the best part of four years to solve this problem. Maybe this will be finally be the solution.

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