BY DAN

The Raiders retention process for the next few years rolls on, with the announcement that Pasami Saulo has signed on for a further two years after this season.

This is a deal that will attract a disproportionate amount of interest for what is essentially a likely low-cost deal for a depth forward. Most will question how this deal got done but other are still waiting, whether Saulo is performing at a level that the Raiders need from their middle forwards, and whether they should be prioritising “low-ceiling” deals over players with more upside. I can understand those views.

My assessment of the deal is that this is a pitch for certainty and role in a transitioning squad. Saulo to me profiles as a ‘motor’ player – someone that benefits from big minutes, getting through the dirty work and locking up the middle in defence (he got through 400 plus tackles last year, an astounding amount given his relative lack of minutes). He’s one of the hardest working players in the league. He is one of the few Raiders that ranks highly in involvement rate, primarily because he runs support and decoy lines – something that the rest of the club appears unable to do (too lazy or told not to? I dunno) – and tackles everyone he can.

The major problem is Saulo hasn’t been used in this way. Rather his minutes have been as an impact forward, coming off the bench for limited minutes through the middle forty of the game. That’s not what he’s suited to and is why he only averaged 50 odd metres a game last season. He’s not going to barrel down tacklers (only 9 tackle busts all season). He’s not going to take 100m off the ground through nine barnstorming runs at the back end of a half. He is however going to be the first forward back to take a carry after Rapa/Cotric/Timoko have already taken the rough carries in yardage. He is going to make 30 tackles in as many minutes.

This deal makes sense if the club sees a need for that role and want to make sure there’s depth in people tackling up a storm so people like Taps and Papa have the energy to do what they do best. In the past Dunamis Lui and Sia Soliola have filled that role. Corey Horsburgh did a lot of this work last year, and Morgan Smithies and Hohepa Puru are probably going to provide support in that aspect as well. Saulo is likely in a depth chart that recognises the club has a lot of one type of forward and needs to provide counterbalance.

There’s still an upside there. Sometimes people forget that Saulo is relatively recently back from a traumatic injury. To the untrained eye (i.e mine) his ball-running seemed stronger at the back end of the year, and in the final against Knights he probably had his most impactful outing on the ground (11 for 102m, 4 of his 9 tackle busts for the season).

In terms of whether that’s enough to keep you excited, it becomes a question of how you want to use roster space. Getting plus performances out of players you’re paying minimum for is a huge part of success. You can do that by a high upside player living up to their potential and substantially over-delivering on what they’re paid for. Or you can get marginal gains from minimally paid players. I suspect having a diverse risk portfolio is a big part of this discussion. Sticky’s Raiders have never been big on risk.

The real question then becomes one of opportunity cost. Is keeping Saulo taking up a space that could be better used elsewhere? Are they turning a precious roster spot over to a known quantity? I can’t imagine this is an either/or with other options with more upside. But it’s hard to argue with people nervous about the club’s tendency to overrate people who do things ‘the right way’ (I.e Sticky’s way) rather than more mercurial players.

In terms of prioritisation of his signing I suspect this is more about the lack of competition for this services. Saulo is the kind of player that most clubs would turn their mind to when they’d secured real bigger fish. Players like ‘he whose name rhymes with Boonie’ will be sought after (or, more accurately *is* sought after). That’s a more complicated and likely longer negotiation.

Much of how this deal is assessed will occur in the hindsight of how the squad fills out over the next few years. While Saulo is unlikely to become the game breaker most will want, he may be a critical glue guy. Many won’t be satisfied with that. But a good side is built with all types. I think Pasami can be a part of that.

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