BY DAN

Nic Cotric should be entering his prime. In 2024 he should be establishing himself as a leader of the Raiders backline for years to come. But what was once an inevitability feels precarious. What is the weight on Nic Cotric’s shoulders? What is holding him back?

When Nic Cotric stormed into the first grade team in 2017 it seemed like anything was possible. 100 plus metres a game, 17 line breaks, and generally looking every bit the elite back (he even had two forced drop outs!). He was immediate. Formed. It was so clear he was ready that before the season the club let/pushed Edrick Lee, a talented back in his own right, out the door. In a season that was frustrating he was a rare bright spot. As we said at the time “Nic Cotric is a rare jewel the Raiders need to involve as much as possible.” He seemed on an inexorable rise to the top.

And, for a while it was. Rookie of the year and selected in the emerging Blues squad at the end of 2017. In 2018 the yardage and line breaks increased, and he led the competition in tackle breaks. He was 18th man for Origin. In 2019 the number plateaued but the plaudits didn’t, and he played Origin and for Australia for the first time in his career. Nic has never reached that mesa of 2018 and 2019 again, either in statistics or in recognition. An ill-feted trip to Canterbury upped his output but not the substance of the performance. He got tried at centre – understood to be the prime reason he left – only to be back home after a year promising he’d never leave the wing again.

His numbers since his return Canberra have been less inspiring than attempts to reduce global warming. In 2023 his output was meagre. He was relegated below Albert Hopoate on the depth chart, and had his performance questioned by anyone with a set of eyes. Of the six people that played wing for the Milk in 2023 Nic averaged the least metres per game and the fewest runs of more than 8 metres. His previous superpower of being impossible to tackle disappeared, and his tackle busts (2.76 per game) were basically the same as Bert Hopoate (2.6) and James Schiller (2.5), and well behind 106 year old Jordan Rapana (3.9).

He scored three times in 2023. A winger can’t always get himself to the line (I mean, someone has to pass him the ball) and Canberra’s attack was less threatening than a Corgi with an attitude. Once upon a time Cotric could almost will himself to the line. In 2023 it took until the last round of the regular season where he displayed something we’d become accustomed to in previous seasons; taking on defenders in the knowledge that he could overpower, outmuscle or outmaneuver them.

In another season this would be unremarkable – this was what Nic did given space and a clear path. Last season it felt like finding a toy you used to play with as a kid – one part excitement at the nostalgia, another part the disappointment of “is that all it did?”

The reasons for this are hard to pinpoint. There’s a strong feeling of plateauing, like the ‘gifted’ kid in primary school suddenly becoming regular in high school because they couldn’t continue on the same trajectory (not me, I was never as gifted as I thought). There’s also a hesitancy to his work that didn’t seem to exist before. The crab walk to the line. The obsequiousness in contact, the beaten-down acceptance in the tackle. The opportunism that had characterised his early career replaced with monotonous, and even worse, safety first, approach, presumably drilled into him by a coaching staff obsessed with playing what was in front of them, rather than the player. It didn’t feel like the unhinged power and dynamism he carried in youth.

I am a believer in Nic but it’s hard to argue that 2023 was his best work. Most fans were ready to look to other talent and it’s hard to argue. Xavier Savage, Albert Hopoate, James Schiller and Utuloa Asomua will all be pressing for more game time in 2024. Each has their skill (speed, power, youth, being from Young) that the Raiders desperately need, and consistent football could see any of them usurp Cotric. Shit it happened in 2023. Bert Hopoate became the king of the wing, until his confidence was sapped too. Begone succubus! Stop thieving our players spirit!

With Jordan Rapana theoretically in his last season and Jarrod Croker having just departed 2024 takes on a different hue. While he’s only 25 Cotric has seven seasons and near 150 games under his belt. He’s roughly the same age as Jarrod was when he cracked 150 games during his first season as captain in 2015. He should be entering his prime, not just as a player but also in leadership: ready to take on more responsibility.

And where there is a need there’s an opportunity. Chaos is a ladder, but so is the tepid bath that was Canberra’s 2023. Cotric doesn’t need to be the game-changing talent he was touted as when he came to the side in 2017. But the Raiders could benefit from him finding his best, consistently, over 2024. At the very least I hope he gets that weight off his shoulders.

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