BY DAN

Hello, and welcome back to life, liberty and the pursuit of the dream of the Canberra Raiders winning the premiership. That is not happening this year. That is not a bold prediction.

That’s our job today. Each year to celebrate the coming over another trip around the sun we pump out a number of guesstimates to match the year. Not the best idea, but baby can you wait for the 2057 season when this article will take you three days to read? Sportress festivus!

Last year we put together a cracking effort. 12 out of 23 (by our imperfect count) was by far and away our most successful to date. Our most impressive included both Huddo and Horse playing Origin, Papa retiring from it, that X would get dropped, that Fogarty would have more try assists than Jack, and the idea that Harley Smith-Shields and Brad Schneider would leave the club (though, the reasoning was wrong). Our favourite ‘wrongs’ were that Jarrod wouldn’t make it to 300 (the old xnij esrever) and that we’d drink beers you good Raiders people after a win in Canberra (turns out it was after a loss – damn you Warriors).

We also put the post 1 Jan over/under at Fifita articles and hit six, just short of the over (6.5). I know your disappointed. When the ‘rumour’ of interest came around for the third time at the end of the season I didn’t even bother to write a “it’s not happening” article. That’s how committed I am to the integrity of these predictions.

There were depressing estimates in there too. Elliott to have a bounce back year. The Raiders to be better than 2022. That Shaylee Bent would sign for the Milk. That Nic Cotric would be back to 2017-2019 Nic (though, towards the end of the season….maybe?). Urgh what was I thinking? The holidays are meant to be fun.

Ok. Let’s try again. In the immortal words of Richie Benaud as played by Billy Birmingham let’s keep it upvibe and interesting.

1. Xavier Savage starts the season at fullback but Chevy ends it there

So much conversation about the Raiders in the mainstream media (such that there is) is superficially focused on Coach Stuart’s initial decisions about this, and the starting six position.You can understand how they get there. They don’t want to think about the Raiders, write about them, or basically do anything other than churn out either what Stick told them or 300 words of surface level thoughts so they can go back to writing about the Tigers for some reason. So they tell you what’s obvious – that more experienced players with more physical development will start ahead of people barely old enough to buy a six-pack and some darts.

Savage will start the season at one. But he won’t finish there. Coach Stuart is big on making promises to people and pathways to first grade really clear. I’m operating off the same information as you but I reckon he’s told Stewart to be ready for later in the year.

2. Weekes starts at six and keeps his spot

Part of the challenge of bringing players through behind ‘bridges’ like Weekes though is that sometimes the bridge player doesn’t give up the gig. This is a total hunch, not really based on anything other than a vibe, off-season photos and the versatility of Ethan Strange (and Seb Kris), but I’ve got this vibe that the Raiders are going to be happy with what Weekes shows, and keep him there way longer than one would assume. Strange will get his shot but it may take longer (or fit differently) than anticipated.

3. Huddo doesn’t play Origin

Ok I know this is meant to be a good vibe and this isn’t, but it’s not Huddo’s fault. The Raiders are going to be even more ‘out of sight, out of mind’ than previous years. Huddo’s cleaning up of the messes around him, creating when he shouldn’t have had to, and generally having to push his abilities to their extreme in order to cover for the flaws of others won’t be recognised against other backrowers with the luxury just doing backrower things. The media being the media will be clamouring for those names.

He won’t even be saved by Madge, who has fame of inexplicably leaving out young Raiders (hiya Matty Mokes) when they’re obviously the man for the job. Unfortunately Huddo will have to consolidate instead of expand.

4. But Horse will

While Huddo might miss out, Horse’s Origin career is going to go from strong to stronger. He only got 20 minutes last time but this is going to be the year of the Horse (actually the year of the Dragon according to my quick google FYI). There’s a heap of names in contention, and injury was the main thing that got him there this time, but recognition is coming for a man that will be pumping out 60 plus minutes of high-energy high-skill footy.

5. And Grace Kemp too!

Simaima Taufa will obviously be there because she’s the best lock in the world. Zehara Temara also. Sophie Holyman will keep her interchange spot because she’s harder to tackle than the Statue of Liberty strolling through the streets of New York (Your love, is lifting me higher…). Kemp stormed into the competition last year. Next season she’ll smash into prime time like the Kool Aid man.

6. Shak Tungai will end some fools

Far out man nothing gets the blood going like seeing Shak tear in from the wing into the unsuspecting face of an opposition runner. One second it’s all green grass and clear air, and then BOOM! More jump scares and pain than a James Wan film.

7. There will no suspensions from off-field incidents

Now this is bold. Call it optimistic. Call it hopeful. Call it brazenly naïve. The Raiders will manage through 2024 without an off-field incident that results in suspension. Get on the roads. Take your dogs for walks. This team are good boys.

8. Justin Giteau will bring some balance to the force.

Over the last few years the Raiders attack hasn’t been the most organised or spunky. Giteau managed to make the Cup team, with ever-shifting spines and personnel, functional and borderline exciting. He’ll bring a similar vibe to a first grade side that’s been in need of some slickness in recent years.

9. Jamal Fogarty leader of the attack.

And that means Jamal Fogarty will finally get some shape and consistency to work with, which combined with his short kicking game will lead to a shit-tonne of countable stats like try-assists. Let’s call it twenty for the season, because we predicted that last year and he didn’t make it. Bringing back the classics!

10. Jamal Fogarty, Queensland train on.

Now this is insane. But hear me out. Fogs is going to make this team go. Fogs is going to be the helm of a more functional offence than 2023. Fogs is going to rack up stats. All it takes is a couple of inopportune injuries to DCE, Hunt, Deardon, Munster (stop listing it’s making it seem less likely) and boom! Jamal Fogarty has been called into the Queensland squad as 18th man. I both love it (for him) and hate it (for us).

11. Something weird is happening with Papa

Get your tin foil hat on, we’re going cooking.

Papa wants to keep playing. He’s made that clear. Let’s play connect the dots (that definitely don’t exist but live a little). He’s out there making it known because the club is telling him behind closed doors that perhaps the time has come (it hasn’t, FYI). The big guy, faced with limited options, can retire and move home to Queensland, or keep playing and move home. Wayne Bennett isn’t an idiot….can you see where i’m going with this?

Gross.

11. Papa extends for 2025 with a 2026 options and waltzes off into the setting sun a club, state and national legend.

I mean whenever he leaves the club it will be as a legend. But I just hope we get to claim him as solely our own.

12. Something weird is also going on with Rapa

I refuse to believe Rapa will ever retire because Rapa will never not want to play footy. When he’s 80 and can’t walk in the retirement home he will be palming orderlies to the ground and farting on their heads. You cannot sedate him. Is the club ready to move on? I don’t think so, but is there a contender needs a year or two of insane and brilliant (sometimes both, sometimes only one) footy? It could happen.

13. Something weird is also going on with Trey Mooney

I dunno man I’m starting to panic. He’s an unequivocal talent but the club seems to have prioritised minutes and contracts for other people. Instead of locking him up they brought Morgan Smithies to the club to compete with him for minutes and positions. They told the Canberra Times they were looking to extend him, but it seemed reactionary, trying to head off a story before it got steam. He’s been rumoured in player swaps before, admittedly, probably at the behest of the club trying to get him. But that only speaks to the fact that everyone seems to rate him higher than the Raiders do.

14. Morgan Smithies will debut in round one.

Off the bench, middle forward. 30 minutes.

He’ll also fight Vilame Kikau whenever it is that we play the Dogs (OH MY GOD IT’S MAGIC ROUND). Don’t ask me, it’s just a hunch.

15. Danny Levi starting hooker.

I’ll get into this more in a few days, but basically Stick loves Danny more than I love fried chicken (last night I had a dream about eating Belle’s Fried Chicken. Gertrude st Fitzroy if you’re ever in Melbourne).

16. Zac Woolford isn’t with the club by the end of the season

A corollary of the above. Stick is in on Levi and Starling for some reason. Adrian Trevilyan is better than both of them. Zac deserves a starting gig in professional football, be it the NRL or Super League. Someone will take him. I don’t know what’s driving the club’s ambivalence to him but it’s as obvious as Bruce is cold.

17. Matt Timoko Dally M Centre of the Year.

If you read these pages you’ll know how high I am on Matty Mokes. The 2023 international games proved just how high his ceiling was. He was the best back on a field with a heap of elite ones. The main problem has always been getting him the ball in good spots. I’m high on the club’s upside potential with the ball this year, and ‘Mokes is going to be a big part of that.

18. The defence will let them down.

Lot of chat in this article about the attack being better. That’s not hard given it wasn’t particularly good last year (4th worst from memory). Their defence was awful too and it was only through variance and some clutch moments that they overperformed and overcame that. They’ve done little to fix that. Both Strange and Weekes are learning on the job at six. Zac Hosking, should he come, will be an improvement but Elliott is no longer an ‘every-down’ backrower. Either Chevy Stewart or X is going to be learning on the job when it comes to organising from the back. Chances are it’ll be porous.

19. Zac Hosking signs on

But this is nice. I don’t think it’s a game changer but it’s a good signing should they complete the snare. It’ll definitely help with depth and defence, and he’s good enough and young enough to be a legit starter.

20. So does Ethan Sanders

As we’ve said before, the situation that is bringing him to Canberra hasn’t changed. Just the date.

21. Sticky signs an extension

His contract isn’t up til 2025 but to avoid a ‘lame duck’ scenario the club will extend him late in the 2024 season for at least the 2026 season too. Do you need a reason?

22. The Raiders win the NSW Cup.

Fuck yeah. The 2008 vibes are off the charts.

This basically comes down to Ricky’s conservatism when it comes to team selections. The second team will have Ethan Strange, Chevy Stewart, Hohepa Puru, Trey Mooney, Jake Clydesdale, Adrian Trevilyan, James Schiller and Utola Asomua all playing week in and week out. Add in rising star Brock Shepperd’s coaching and I am very high on this group.

23. NRLW Raiders make the finals

They were so close last year and they’d barely met. Not to mention that Simaima seemed to play much of the year hurt (and underwent the quietest surgery you’ll ever hear about this off-season). They’re all better, more cohesive, and ready to make the leap.

24. NRLM Raiders will not.

Last year they weren’t good, and made the finals through some mix of smoke, mirrors and muscle memory. They could be a better side than 2023, lose some of those coin flip games and end much worse on the table. Other teams won’t be as bad (Souths, the Cows and the Eels for example). It’s an uphill battle. 2024 won’t be a banner year; it’ll be a year in which improvements made don’t bear fruit until further down the track. And that’s ok.

Welcome to 2024.

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