BY DAN

For the first time in years the Canberra Raiders will enter the 2024 season with a clear incumbent at lock. Corey Horsburgh made that position his over the year. But for the first time in years the Raiders will have options at the position that will allow them a greater flexibility in style. Are the Milk ready to take advantage?

The lock position has been a bit of a rotating feast in Canberra recently. It was Joe Tapine until everyone agreed putting 13 on his back was more about saying he was the fanciest big man than an old school lock. It was Josh Hodgson’s job for a bit, when he and Sticky were at such logger heads that Josh just up and decided to create a new job because the coach didn’t want him doing the one he was best at. Adam Elliott did it well, bringing the passing through the middle the Raiders had never had before Hodgson, only in a body that was bigger and meaner (and younger). But he left, and the job fell to Corey Horsburgh.

The Red Horse made one of those leaps last year. From cult classic to critically acclaimed. Underground hero to the charts. He went from someone many fans saw as a frustrating mix of ill-discipline and obvious talent. Much of this was built of perception – being a redhead means that anytime you make a big run or lose your temper people notice. Every misstep and every success was ascribed to your hair.

It’s why you didn’t see the breakout in the statistics. His run metres were practically the same. Ditto post contact metres and offloads. There were few of the rampaging red-head moments many perceive the Horse to be part of. When he did pack on metres they were slow burn efforts, some long runs built from dragging defenders like a person dragging in all the shopping at once. Step after step he’d keep going, a mix of determination and enduring leg power.

What did change was his role. He hadn’t played as a lock (whatever that may be) in the past. He’d been a straight up middle. Hit the line hard, flop an offload if your arm is free and make your tackles. In 2023, in the absence of Adam Elliott, of Hodgson, of those that had come before, he became the link between the tram tracks. You can see that in his passing stats. He had the same amount of posessions (444) as Joe Tapine, only near 80 less runs (i.e. he ran the ball near 25 per cent less than Taps with the same amount of ball). He engaged the line 59 times. That’s third in the side behind Jack Wighton and Jamal Fogarty (admittedly in a side that ranked stone cold last in line engagements).

You also saw it in his rampant tackling. Horse was second in the team in total tackles (behind Boxer Eliott Whitehead), 22nd in the competition in total, 26th on average. He did that at one of the highest rates of efficiency (94) of any player making a significant number of tackles in a game. Better than Ruben Cotter (92). Better than Jake Trebjovic (91), Cam Murray (92), Tohu Harris (91) or Cam McInnes (91) (for the record from Fox’s stats the only player I can find with a higher rate of efficiency at over 30 tackles a game was Jayden Brailey, who’s 96 came from only five games). It often felt like he was Canberra’s sole defender in the middle. Teams didn’t find it hard to get through the Milk this season but they did find it hard to get through Corey.

If Canberra could clone Corey it would be handy. With their current 9s they need easier width through the middle. This will be doubly case with a likely inexperienced six sitting on the left edge. If they are to be more competitive in 2024 a more robust middle defence will be a necessity. It was too easy to get beat Canberra in contact, enthusiasm or endurance there.

Luckily Canberra have one in the chamber and potentially another on the way that can mirror these skills. We only got to see Hohepa Puru for a minute in the top line last year, but it was clear that one game will become more in 2024. At just 21 he’s got growth to do physically, but he already understands the game as anyone else in Canebrra’s top 30. He’s got a tremendous passing game – something that he intrerestingly didn’t unleash in his short foray in the top line – and will bring the width to the Green Machine’s attack that we lauded Horse for doing.

Puru is smaller and quicker than Horse, and could similarly get through heavy rotation minutes, allowing the Raiders to use their other middles with more impact. He could play 13 instead of Horse, or alongside, allowing the red-head to play either with more impact, or unleashing a more mobile Canberra attack that allowed both halves to set up wide because there’s not one, but two connecting forwards on the field. Exciting stuff – someone tell Sticky we’re still allowed to be exciting in attack. They are reportedly in the process of locking him down long term. They better.

They Raiders are also reportedly in the process of bringing Morgan Smithies to town. He’s young, talented, with the engine of my old ’87 Corolla (man that thing just kept going and going no matter how I mistreated it. Could have poured sand into it instead of oil and it would have found a way). Smithies loves tackling. He led the Super League in it his first year out. In the recent final that his team won he made 50-something tackles (do not look at the misses, I repeat, do not look at the misses) and matched it with 19 runs because he is more likely to be dead than tired (when was the last time we used indefatigable as a descriptor for a Raider? My that would be something).

As to his passing game, well, that’s at tough thing to gauge. Harry Rushton had that in his arsenal when he was with the club and in the few outings he got in the top line he was yet to perfect his timing. I’ve seen reports by people who watch more English footy than me that it’s a skill he possesses, but I haven’t seen it. that doesn’t mean he can’t develop it, and at just 23 there’s nothing but interest to stop him.

Smithies might also be able to fit alongside Horse, either as the hard-working backrower we hope him to be, or perhaps as the less-ball dominant but equally tackle dominant middle. If he’s a defender of quality suddenly there’s a possibility of a middle forty of the game where control of the trenches doesn’t get away from the Milk that doesn’t involve overcooking their starting rotation.

There’s a possibility that Elliott Whitehead or Corey Harawira-Naera play minutes there but they feel extra degrees of separation from the situation. If Smithies is the middle then they’re battling for minutes in the middle. If Smithies takes the edge spot then the Raiders are just shifting one tackling machine inside to cover part of the bench rotation. If Trey Mooney ever meaningfully cracks first grade (which he should this season) then it won’t be as a lock but as part of that bopper battle. Given his skill set I don’t think that’s a bad fit.

Those questions are secondary, a reflection that Canberra is (finally) building a new generation of options. It reflects a transition in the squad beyond the “silver” era of 2019-20. There’s a lot of questions to be answered as to how they’ll manage that, but for once, what to do at lock isn’t one of them.

Do me a favour and like the page on Facebook, follow me on Twitter, or share this on social media because we are just men, just innocent men. Don’t hesitate to send us feedback (dan@sportress.org) or comment below if you think we are stupid. Or if we’re not.