BY ROB

The Raiders had a chance last Sunday to exert a modicum of control over their destiny in 2023. Instead they took that chance, threw it in the mud, trampled on it and kicked it onto the scrap heap.

It’s ironic (or at least it is to me) that the first two teams that Canberra defeated this season were the two that put them on a collision course for finals misery. The wobbly win over the Sharks in round 3 was promptly overshadowed by the devastating loss to the Panthers, before the Green Machine clicked and put one over the then undefeated Broncos.

Fast-forward to season’s end and there were the Broncos and Sharks again. Neither of these teams had gotten significantly better in the interval, but the Raiders had certainly gotten worse.

Losing to the Sharks meant that the Raiders train changed tracks. No longer aimed towards a week 1 rematch with Cronulla, Canberra now has the worst possible match-up in the bottom four: the Newcastle Knights.

For the last two months the Knights have been the polar opposite of the Raiders. After a horror start to the season injury wise they’ve regained key troops and with them, their mojo. McDonald Jones stadium has been a bubbling cauldron of energy and the Novocastrians have bottled that elixir for use on the road.

The Knights have won 9 games straight, knocking off the likes of the Storm, Bunnies and Sharks along the way. The Raiders have struggled through the backend of the season, barely beating the likes of the Bulldogs and Tigers.

The Raiders approach this game sorely undermanned. No Papa, no Horse, no Kris. They’re a team that has struggled in attack all year, and Sunday’s effort against the Sharks demonstrated that they’re a long way off solving their issues in the attacking 20. Crash balls may suffice against weaker defences in NSW Cup but in the NRL they can be turned away time and again.

At this point I could bang on about game plan and strategy but these things are alien concepts for the Raiders in 2023. Carting it up the middle is all well and good but a team needs alternative avenues of exploration should the middle prove unwinnable. The Knights do not have this problem, as shown in their lethal left side shifts that lead to long range attacks.

Team list thoughts

Kris’ suspension sees James Schiller return to the side after strong performances in NSW Cup. Other than that the team remains the same as last week, with youngsters Puru and Mooney retaining their spots.

Match-ups

Hohepa Puru vs Adam Elliott

A rising star vs a one year former Raider. Puru is playing just his second NRL game in a do-or-die final but we’re all pretty sure he can handle the big occasion, hopefully with a dash more freedom to engage in ball playing than he was granted against the Sharks. Elliott was a standout in his year in green, a solidly consistent player with smooth passing.

Jordan Rapana vs Kalyn Ponga

Rapana has been everything to the Raiders this year: a freakish saviour one moment, a ham-fisted coach killer the next. All we need from him on Sunday is 80 minutes of footy free of brain-snaps. Kalyn Ponga is one of the form custodians of the NRL right now, his attacking prowess razor sharp. He has a particular ability to torment and slice through right side edges – defenders beware.

Predictions

There’s a light at the end of the tunnel, but unfortunately for the Raiders it’s a 2km long train carrying Newcastle steel. There’s a slight chance the good, competent Green Machine could get off the bus on Sunday, but it’s somewhere around 0.0000089%.

Me purchasing the Raiders with the billion dollars I’m going to win soon.

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