BY DAN

As if the Canberra Raiders season couldn’t get any more precarious, they’ve been dealt a another blow with news emerging that Jamal Fogarty could have a fractured eye socket. This would almost certainly end his season. And possibly the Raiders’ year.

Obviously we’ll have to wait until the scans reveal the damage, and spend the meantime hoping and praying and probably sacrificing something to the footy gods. But eye sockets aren’t exactly quick-healing. If it is fractured, then it’s curtains. This isn’t so interesting in terms of who will fill in for him. Brad Schneider isn’t with the club, Ethan Strange is maybe a five-eighth, but definitely not a halfback. Matt Frawley will simply switch sides, with Jack Wighton coming back to six. Seb Kris will go back to centre, and either Albert Hopoate or James Schiller will play wing. It’s not complicated, or exciting.

But it is interesting in how the Raiders will react. This season has been a career year for Fogarty and his involvement in games has been directly correlated with things going well. In games he’s ceded control to Jack the Milk have struggled. In games where he had his hands on the ball the Green Machine have thrived. Now the Raiders must face their most important game of the year without Fogarty.

This will put pressure on both Frawley and Wighton to pick up the slack. Moving Frawley to the right will move a defensive risk from left to right, making Elliott Whitehead and Matt Timoko’s job all the more difficult against a dynamic left-side attack for the Sharks. Smell isn’t the defender he was, and Timoko is not yet the defender he will be. Neither are capable of covering for the liability that Frawley creates with his presence. On the plus side a likely left edge of Young, Wighton, Kris should actually be pretty resolute.

In attack the effect will be even greater. So much of Canberra’s attack recently has come from Fogarty operating at first receiver. With quick feet and smart passing he’s been effective at taking advantage of overly-aggresisve defenders – witness his beautiufl step-and-pass to Hudson Young on the weekend. Frawley doesn’t have the twinkle toes for such a move. His most effective work is as a cool head and support player. Wighton will need him to run the side, but Canberra’s attack, already threadbare, feels even more naked after this news.

It will put a huge amount of pressure on Jordan Rapana to continue to be the ‘other’ creative force in Canberra’s attack. Playing at first receiver on weakside raids, Rapana has been effective and targeting slow A defenders and creating overlaps. The man can spot an opportunity. But that works partly because defences are often slow to recognise Jordan on that edge, and failing to slide numbers there effectively. With no Fogarty more eyes will be on Rapana, and he’ll simultaneously be asked to more but with more pressure on him. Anyone that has watched Jordy for some time knows that’s not a good recipe. Add to that the probably suspension of Corey Horsburgh, and shit is getting real, real quick.

The only silver lining of this is that an injury like this likely isn’t career threatening, and it will just mean an early start to the off-season for Fogarty. Everyone has plenty of tape of him, and it likely won’t impact his contract negotiations over the next few months. He’ll be right for next year.

In a sense it has the same effect on the Raiders. While they could still squeeze into the finals, it makes a limited team even moreso, and puts them at a real disadvantage should they make week one of the playoffs. There’s not much going right for the Milk right now.

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