BY DAN

Like the Titanic after a robust discussion with an iceberg the Canberra Raiders 2023 season is rapidly taking on water.

At the face of it it’s pretty simple. Win and in. Keeping winning until you win the premiership.

Of course its a bit more complicated than that. If the Panthers beat the Cowboys the Raiders are in. If they don’t, then Canberra need to beat the Sharks at their own home in the last game of the regular season. If they don’t they end on equal points with North Queensland and a season of wasted opportunities and sin will come drag them away from the light.

But that definitely makes winning feel more certain than it is. It’s hard to say whether the Raiders are a chance against the Sharks on current form. They were much better on the weekend, but being better and still losing against a side missing it’s starting halfback and a critical middle forward isn’t exactly something to bet on. They found heart, but only time will tell if what was presented was a sustainable solution.

It’s not off to a good start because since the game they’ve already lost key personnel. News emerged over Sunday that Jamal Fogarty had potentially fractured his eye socket. We’ll wait on scans but if it’s proven true the Raiders lose arguably their most reliable attacking option and key game manager. In a team that has got the collective calm of a smoke alarm he’s been the only source of intelligence. When they need precision and execution in a high stakes game he was on the short list of people that wouldn’t go to water.

What was worse though is that the likely replacement got just one of the most embarrassing baths since ‘The Contest’. If Coach Stuart needed reminding, for the umpteenth time, that Matt Frawley needs help in defence he got it. This isn’t ‘the half needs protection’ defensive skills. This is ‘cratering liability’. Frawley is an intelligent player, but as a defender he has no lateral agility or vertical speed. Good attacks, like the Broncos did and the Sharks will, zero-in on him like a toddler to one of those $3 rides at the shopping centre. Most halves need help, but the level that Frawley requires can’t be built on the fly, as Stuart attempted to do with his team-list last week. Unfortunately Stuart will likely have no option but to keep Frawley in the side.

It will also likely mean a return to five-eighth for Jack Wighton. We said this in the review but it’s hard not to see Frawley’s insertion at five-eighth in an otherwise healthy backline as an admission by Stuart that Wighton is playing genuinely terrible football at the moment. Even at centre on Saturday it took Jack a full half to work out he no longer has the pace to run around outside backs. It wasn’t until the second half that he worked out that running through the guts of the defence was where he could do the most damage. He never was known for his cerebral matter.

Whether Stuart likes it or not this is his only realistic option. Brad Schneider was sent packing. Ethan Strange was ready until he wasn’t. It’s Frawley/Wighton 2023 or bust for the Milk.

A further challenging problem has emerged with Corey Horsburgh being cited for a shoulder charge. Horsburgh has been central to so much of Canberra’s success this year – providing hard yards, useful connections and making more tackles than anyone else at the club in big minutes in the middle. There is no like-for-like substitution, and it means that the Raiders will need to rely more on their rotation forwards to cover for Corey.

Unfortunately the rotation forwards have been a big issue in recent times. The Raiders have struggled through the middle portion of games, particularly opening the second half. Moving Josh Papalii to the bench has helped. He has looked invigorated as leader of the second unit but he needs help. Emre Guler’s defensive lapses undermine whatever impact his sometimes brutal running style brings. Ata Mariota is going to be great one day but as yet he’s not winning rucks or physical battles on either side of the ball. One would presume it would be Pasami Saulo or Trey Mooney to fill the spot.

Regardless of who fills in, the whole bench mob will need to cover a big increase in minutes, and it could see Coach Stuart abandon the idea of carrying a back and a hooker on the bench (also, it’s dumb to do that) to carry three forwards and a hooker on the bench. That may mean Jarrod Croker is dropped, which feels about where this season is at. More likely Stuart simply asks Emre Guler to play bigger minutes, as though he didn’t watch him miss five tackles through the middle third of the loss to the Broncos.

It feels like all this could have been avoided, but of course you can’t choose when you lose your halfback, your lock, or your happiness. Canberra have spent so many months not fixing what was holding them back because despite everything, they were winning (I assume, or either because they couldn’t, which is equally dark). As it has become harder for them to beat good teams (or even bad ones) it’s become clear that the whole world was watching and worked them out. Teams are perfectly able to exploit their weaknesses, because they are just more pronounced versions of the problems every team has. Most teams have weaknesses in their edge defence. Most teams have a drop off to their second-unit middle-rotation. Most teams have a fullback who mixes brilliant ball-play with occasional tripping (ok maybe not the last one). The Raiders have the same issues, just worse than everyone else.

And now there’s no time to fix them. It’s time to meet your maker. Like the Broncos game the way forward isn’t so much fixing the issues, it’s succeeding in spite of them. It’s high-risk low-margin stuff but it may well be the only viable option now. No more shuffling the deck chairs. It’s time to boogie to the music playing as the boat starts to sink.

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