BY DAN

A ripple of panic flowed through the world of the Canberra Raiders today when it was revealed that Jamal Fogarty would be looking to establish his free agent value on open market come 1 November.

This, understandably, upset Canberra fans and led to the expected schadenfreude from the usual corners. Fogarty is a very good half coming off the back of a career season in which he’s looked like Canberra’s best organiser and creator, has resolved any concerns about his leadership or defence, and has generally found the best of himself amongst the turmoil. Combine that with already losing Jack Wighton and you could see why fans would be nervous. To misplace one half may be regarded as misfortune. To lose the other is downright carelessness.

Before getting too carried away with this it’s probably worth establishing some context. Fogarty is on contract through 2024, so this is a long-term problem, not one for next year. He’ll be 31 by the time a new deal kicks in, meaning his contract from 2025 onwards is likely his last. He’ll want to be certain it’s full value. He’s also currently on an ‘unders’ deal, regardless of what anyone tells you. He came to Canberra because he had no other options, resulting in a three-year, $400,000 a year deal that was both life-changing and now much less than he’s worth on the open market. At this stage the Raiders have offered a 12 month extension, likely at a higher rate, but for Fogarty insufficient to meet his ambition of one last big deal before his career likely enters a different phase.

For their part Canberra have likely offered a 12 month extension as a first port of call. Recognition of what Fogarty is, but also knowing at this age it’s a risk to go too deep in years on a deal and be left carrying old players with too many years on their contracts and not enough spring in their steps (*ahem*). Moments like this also come with an opportunity cost. If Fogarty stays does it impact retention elsewhere? The Raiders seem to have locked up big chunks of the roster going forward, so it seems more it would impact flexibility to add to that rather than lead to more people leaving.

Another matter is the fact that this squad is now officially in transition, and they’ll be working hard to get their spine of the future (Sanders, Strange, Stewart, Trevilyan) in place. Sanders will come in 2025, and I’m sure the Milk’s preference is for him to get a year or so working under or next Fogarty before he was officially given the reigns. This doesn’t mean Fogarty would be out the door in 2026, more than the club would re-enter negotiations at this time next year, or after that, to assess where he, and the club are at. These matters change quickly as Don said recently, and the club is trying to keep flexibility in how they manage them.

So it’s a bit of a stand-off. Canberra want to put a year on the deal and Fogarty likely wants an extra year and more money. Fogarty’s next move is to say he’ll go to market. This can’t (legally) occur for a few months, and is announced now purely to engender a response out of the club. Up the money and the years, or i’ll go find someone who will. It’s hard to not also recognise the difficulty in replacing Wighton playing into this. Fogarty knows the club can ill afford the image damage of losing both starting halves in one off-season (even if they wouldn’t lose at the same time). The club now has to make an assessment – is it likely that he’ll get more elsewhere?

This requires knowledge and expertise beyond my abilities. It would seem to me that there’s not really a good landing spot. Almost every team has a long-term plan for their halves, and those that don’t have fights on their hands to keep what they already have. Teams like the Tigers and Bulldogs already have heavy investments across other parts of the club, and are such chaotic environments it would take a confident person to leave an environment in which they’re playing career best football in the hope that basket bases will become…functioning cases? The only two that I can squint and see if South Sydney or North Queensland, but given their relative cap positions and that both have either spent big, or will need to spend big in order to keep current talent, the upgrade that Fogarty is seeking is unlikely to be available.

But the fact remains that good halves are hard to find (as the Raiders have found with their search for a Jack Wighton replacement, and the loss of Brad Schneider). Canberra can’t really risk Fogarty hitting the open market because someone with deeper pockets may be willing to take the risk. Their future focus is worthy and the talent is coming, but assuming talent plus time equals glory is a naive approach to roster building. Someone like Fogarty who provides leadership, experience and guidance to the next generation will be crucial in ensuring that the Raiders are competitive in the short-term and glorious in the future.

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