BY DAN

The Canberra Raiders are in a bad place. After winning ten of twelve they’ve now lost three of four. They are on the precipice of a collapse though while not unsurprising or unprecedented, will be deemed as such by a media with the memory of a potato. The last time they looked convincing in a game was arguably early April against the Broncos (or May against Souths), long enough ago that it feels like a different season.

To say things are bad is probably an understatement. For months these pages, you, and (when they’ve noticed) the rugby league media have furrowed their respective brows at the Canberra Raiders and tried to work out what was going on. We hoped it was a foundation but maybe it was a mirage. The last few weeks have certainly suggested that whatever magic of variance was carrying them through the year has worn itself out. If you don’t have that mild feeling of panic stinging the back of your brain then you’re either a cooler head than me, already resigned to your fate, or you need to be put into the concussion protocol.

Fixing it is a challenge because it’s hard to know where to start. For months we’ve worried about the staid attacking structures, the unconvincing defence, and the inability of one of the more experienced sides in the competition to play with composure. If these things have been plain to us then it’s safe to assume they’ve been clear to Raiders HQ. But they haven’t been fixed, and the rest of the league has eventually caught on that the Raiders can out try you, but they can’t outplay you.

There also things that should have taken weeks or months to fix, not days. It’s possible improvements have been made but just haven’t taken root yet. Maybe the expansive, though error-ridden play against the Tigers was evident of a team *nearly* getting there (as opposed to our assessment, which was that it was a mediocre team, trying, but failing to take advantage of a poor team). It’s an optimistic take, but one that can only be tested in time. All we have right now is last weekend as evidence.

The solution that will be offered is more resolve. That’s a good start. When things feel hopeless a bit of steely determination can go a long way, just ask Mackenzie Arnold. Already rumours of Jarrod Croker’s return to the side, presumably at the expense of Ethan Strange, have begun to swirl alongside the announcement of his impending retirement. If it feels familiar it’s because it is. The formula has been the same in recent seasons. When the dark clouds start to circle the same formula is used. More heart, more courage, an old head shining a light in the right direction, but apart from that the same people fixing the same problems in the same ways. It’s been a enough then. The only new addition may be a ‘do it for Jarrod’ vibe.

But now there’s no out-working the situation. The competition is too flat to hope other teams will be resting on their laurels. The Bulldogs are as chaotic as the Raiders and fighting a different, but similar discourse. But the Broncos will be playing for first and forming the habits to win a premiership. The Sharks are playing for the position most assumed they’d given up through their own swoon. They are waiting and ready. They’ve watched how teams have exploited the Milk in the second half of the season. Watched as Canberra have looked bereft of ideas in the face of resolute middle defence. Everyone knows who they are.

If there’s a hope cracking through the clouds its that other teams have turned similarly hopeless situations around this season. The Sharks and the Knights have done it recently, and Canberra have already proved it possible after their early season debacles. But proof positive it can be done isn’t enough to say it will be done. And as we’ve said even if they hang on, to what end? Do we need another week of defibrillators and depression? I’m sure there are better ways to spend your weekend (not that I’ve found them).

But if it is to be done it has to start with this round. It’s not even one of those ‘win by heaps’ situations. The Raiders aren’t fixing their points differential. It’s win-and-in stuff for them. Find a way. Whatever it takes. The absolute irony of the situation. Hold on, it might almost be over.

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