BY ROB

The Raiders stumbled out of round 23 like a victorious drunk in a bar fight, clutching two competition points in their bruised hands alongside a toothless but relieved smile. The fact that they only just scraped past the last-place Tigers had fans reaching for the Valium. A repeat performance of that ineptitude will not be acceptable this weekend.

The Storm haven’t had the smoothest season but they still look far more capable than the Green Machine currently do. Thanks to their strong football management system they’re able to bounce back and find the correct trajectory if their form drifts too far, something the Raiders are yet to demonstrate.

The Raiders really need to get out of their own way, by which I mean Jack Wighton needs to get out of the way. Much like the Warriors game three weeks ago he forced plays way too much against the Tigers, launching wonky passes anywhere but into his teammates hands.

Which brings me to the smokiest tin foil theory I can muster – what if Ethan Strange is debuting at centre with an option to switch to 5/8 mid-game if Wighton loses his head again? I know he’s there to cover for a hamstrung Seb Kris but given the conjecture around his future role having him acclimatise at centre before having a crack at pivot isn’t the worst stratagem this team has put forward.

The only game plan suggestions I can put forward for this match is simply to avoid the playing style of the last three weeks. The ball ideally needs to reach Fog more than Jack. Woolford and Trevilyan surely know this, and they’ll need to be at the top of their steering game in order to find the Raiders forwards good channels to exploit.

Team list thoughts

Ethan Stranges’ inclusion in the team list on Tuesday triggered a slew of puns, but on a serious note this may be one of the more exciting debuts for the Raiders this year. His form in the U19’s Origin game was scintillating and fans will be keen to see what he can do at the top level.

Adrian Trevilyan maintains his bench spot for the second week running which means Canberra will have consistent service across the eighty minutes.

Jarome Hughes returns for the Storm because the Raiders don’t have enough hurdles to overcome already.

Match-ups

Adrian Trevilyan vs Harry Grant

The possible star fulcrum vs the current best rake. With Smith and Hodgson no longer in the game Grant, alongside Koroisau, arguably holds the title as the best hooker around. If there’s one player that can match those two in the next few years it’s Trevilyan. We saw glimpses of what he can do on display against the Tigers, and he’s going to need every trick up his sleeve to catch Melbourne unawares.

Nick Cotric vs Xavier Coates

Cotric had himself something of a mini comeback last week. He ran with more direction and purpose than any other time this year and genuinely looked like someone who actually wanted to be in the game. Coates is always a threat, meaning Strange and Hoppa will have their work cut out containing him.

Predictions

Canberra have four games left: Storm, Bulldogs, Broncos and Sharks. Given the logjam of teams below them with better differentials they need to stay ahead on competition points. If they play like they have the last few weeks the Storm and the Broncos will delight in pulling them to bits and making that negative differential even worse. A win this weekend would be huge, but sadly unlikely.

Raiders to end their Melbourne winning streak

Rob has never predicted we’d lose before and I’m reeling. You can follow Rob on Twitter here. Or you can do us a solid and like our page on Facebook, follow Dan on Twitter (or Threads!) or share this on social media. Don’t hesitate to send us feedback (dan@sportress.org) or comment below if you think we are stupid. Or if we’re not.