BY ROB

We’re really at the pointy end now. With just five rounds (including this one) of footy left it’s time for teams 5th to 10th to decide whether or not they wish to partake in September’s festivities. Why 10th you ask? Why not 12th, four in four out? The Knights and Sea-Eagles have those odd numbered comp points in hand, which means they could edge anyone unfortunate enough to fall backwards out of the 8, even though the Eels should technically be in front of them. That’s a small kicker in itself – the Eels only have four games left to do their dash before they have to spend the final round waiting to see which way the pieces fall.

The Raiders, by some miracle, are still 5th. The only thing that saved them after a horror showing against Newcastle is that both the Sharks and Cowboys fell backwards, while the 9th placed Bunnies shot past them to claim 6th place. My point here is that the lower half of the 8 is a volatile environment, one moment you’re in, the next you’re in 8th desperately trying to hang on.

Canberra need to make a stand here. All season they’ve been labelled an anomaly, a freakish aberration in green, an unkillable negative differential. The Raiders have somehow ground out a collection of narrow wins, punctuated by horror losses where they’ve leaked points like a sieve. In fact they haven’t had a blowout win since they played a dysfunctional Tigers side in the final round of the 2022 season.

The Tigers are in that weird zone – their season was dead ages ago, a measly three wins tucked under their belts. By now they should be playing expansive pressure free footy, but due to a combination of an ineffectual management team and continuous hostile attention from the NRL media they’re struggling to even stay in touch with the Dogs and the Dragons. But then they pushed the Bunnies last week, and the return of both Api Koroisau and Luke Brooks in recent weeks has stiffened their resolve.

Canberra barely managed to hang on against the Tigers back in round 14. This time round they need to blow them off the park. If the Green Machine can’t hand a thumping to a team languishing in 17th then they have no right gumming up the finals series.

Team list thoughts

To resurrect the Raiders attack Sticky has finally rung some changes. Croker is out, resting up a hamstring injury, with Rapana moving to fullback while Seb Kris slots back into the centres, with Nick Cotric regaining a wing spot. I cannot underline how vital a good performance for Cotric is in this match. He’s been a shadow of his former self post his Bulldogs adventure, and with a host of youngsters firming in NSW Cup he needs to lock his spot down.

The other big change is the number 14 bench spot. Tom Starling has dropped all the way down to number 20 on the extended bench, with Adrian Trevilyan into the side. Sane Raiders fans will be extremely excited by this – Trevilyan is arguably the best hooker the club has, a player who’s unfortunately been hampered with some of the worst injury luck of anyone in the top 30. If he puts in a solid showing this round Starling could well see out the year in reserves.

Match-ups

Joseph Tapine vs David Klemmer

A Kiwi prop vs a former NSW forward. These two tall dudes can both bend or break the line, and defenders on both sides will need to promptly wrap the ball up or there’ll be offloads galore. Tapine has the edge in terms of metres and needs to make a beachhead for Woolford or Trevilyan to operate from.

Woolford/Trevilyan vs Koroisau

Api Koroisau is regarded as one of the best rakes in the game right now, and while he has the edge over Woolford he may not be able to handle the tempo change when Trevilyan subs on. The Raiders need to restrict the Tigers forwards and in turn deny Koroisau the time and space to scheme.

Predictions

I haven’t written anything about gameplans or tactics in this Rumble because I honestly don’t know if the Raiders currently possess either. The drivel offered up against the Knights was some of the worst footy I’ve ever seen, and if that didn’t trigger a brutal honesty session on the Monday after then I don’t know what could. If the Raiders can’t get it done this round they’d better start packing for holidays.

Raiders by 40+ simply because they have to.

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