BY DAN

The rumours, and build-up thereof, that Jarome Luai is considering coming to Canberra is a perfect encapsulation of the rugby league rumour eco-system.

Luai is seeking a new deal and keen to get as much as he can at Penrith. He doesn’t need a new deal because he’s not off contract, though he can negotiate with other clubs for the 2025 season from the end of this year. He’s split with his management, which means he’s going to sign a new deal somewhere because his new management can’t get commission on an old deal, and some third party cash wandered off.

Given how many players the Panthers have let walk out the door (Kikau, Crichton, Salmon, Leniu, Koroisau), it shouldn’t be too hard to keep Luai. Don’t get me wrong – it’ll be tight, and Luai will have to take less to stay in Penrith than come to Canberra. But it shouldn’t be a Wighton-sized difference. Their incoming replacements have been cheap and the only upgrade they’ll need to add to the current pile is for Dylan Edwards (noting Cleary, Yeoh, and Leota are all signed through 2027 and their cash will need to be incorporated). Everything points to him staying there – the money will be fine, he’s happiest in that team (and arguably the perfect representative of their attitude and style of play) and in that place, and the fit with Nathan Clearly is about as good as his as his idiosyncratic style will support.

Luai, currently reportedly on 700k, obviously wants as much money as possible. This leads to his management to look elsewhere in an attempt to create leverage to make sure the ‘Riff get as much possible – the old Raider Raise (shouts to Jack Cronin). They need to give the impression he’ll leave, which they’ve clearly been trying to do. A bunch of teams have been thrown up as possibilities but two capture the media’s imagination more than others – the Dogs and the Raiders. One because Phil Gould’s recruitment approach is reminiscent of when Doc Rivers continually signed ex-Celtics in his time at the Clippers. The other because the Milk have more spare cash than I spent taking your mum out to a nice steak dinner.

This is where the media makes a nothing a big thing. A talking head goes on TV or writes an article and says “gee the Raiders have cash space”. Then a writer, desperate to find content to generate clicks and meet quotas, says “respected journalist says Raiders might be a possibility”. Then another writer says “rumours” because there’s an article and a TV clip now, and they want to write about how funny it would be to watch Ricky Stuart try to understand Luai. All of a sudden we’ve purple-monkey-dishwashered our way to Luai staying with Penrith while Raiders fans breathe a sigh of relief/express frustration (choose your own adventure). Oh and don’t leave us out of this unvirtuous circle. This crap annoys us to the point we write *this* article, just to say it won’t happen. But it refuting the noise we add to it. It would be worse if anyone gave a shit what we thought.

This isn’t the only example of this. This is a favourite of the rugby league media, and something that occurs on an almost daily basis, utilising NRL360 in particular to launder these ideas. Someone spouts a vibe, Fox league breathlessly recaps the vibe, the next night the ‘rumour’ is discussed on 360 because they can’t stand to talk about actual football. And we’re off. It’s fun because all you can say it’s unlikely. That doesn’t mean it’s impossible. It’s a technique Fox has perfected in American political discourse to spout absurd things to their partisan audience. It’s fascinating to see them extrapolate it to rugby league. Hey ma we made it!

It’s different to legitimate discussions that have occurred in the past around players like Ben Hunt, David Fifita or even Matt Dufty. On those occasions the Raiders expressly were interested. Fifita and Dufty even toured Canberra, hung out with the side and seemed to genuinely consider the town. Luai can’t even talk to the Raiders right now (not that it would stop his new management), and his only public statements have been about how he wants to stay at Penrith.

So the short of it is Luai isn’t coming to Canberra. While I don’t like the guy, and don’t think he’s the elite talent that his reputation has suggested, it would be a fascinating fit. Would he benefit from a bigger role and more freedom? He’s succeeded in the hyper structured Penrith offences. The Raiders haven’t had such an offence while Jack has been six. But he’d be gone – would the philosophy again change to meet the talent? Would it be an unnecessary impediment to also left dominant Ethan Sanders – who will be joining in 2025, just like Luai would? I tend to support grabbing talent when you can and working the fit out later, but it seems incongruent to the Milk’s current recruitment plan – get them before they’re big – and the crop of stars coming through the squad.

Ah shit, now i’m doing it. All this conjecture and hypotheticals. We can’t answer them because Luai probably won’t be coming to town. But goddamn it will be a story.

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