BY ROB

The Raiders somehow escaped round 21 mostly unscathed, faring much better than their immediate ladder contemporaries (barring the Warriors who they lost to). The Broncos cleaned up the Bunnies, while the Eels couldn’t get it done against the Cowboys. The Sharks slumped against Manly before a last minute salvo. Not least by any means the Storm were fed a good slice of humble pie by the Knights, a hot and cold side who had been “hot mic sassed” by Storm captain Welch a couple of weeks back.

The Knights are “one of those teams” right now. They spent the first half of the season oscillating between competitive and complacent. Thanks to an early draw against Manly they’re currently 10th on 23 comp points with a +/- of 50. Most worryingly for Canberra they have form. In their last three games they’ve iced the Dogs 66-0, brushed off the Tigers and ground out the Storm. The Raiders are arguably their toughest opponent between now and season’s end.

Canberra have their work cut out over the next few rounds. The aim at this point should be not falling below 6th (they’re currently 5th). The Raiders are at an extreme +/- disadvantage – they’re in the 8 but on -56. To find a worse differential you have to look as low as the Roosters in 12th. The Raiders need to win, and preferably by generous margins. One can only dream.

But now to Saturday’s game proper. If there was one glaring issue last week it was the case of who was driving the car (or team). Jack Wighton tried to have a hand in everything across the opening 20 minutes, and in doing so constantly mucked things up. I like Snack Eighton as much as the next fan but it’s Fogarty who should be dictating structured play and direction.

Secondly, the Raiders need to have Woolford on as much as possible – without him there what little attacking structure they do have collapses, the end result being players running sideways in search of a gap rather than creating them by manipulating defenders. Woolford is the best option for quick distribution from dummy half and certainly needs to be on the field for maximum minutes (including the final 15 minutes).

In terms of gaining a territorial advantage Canberra need to kick early and long/high. Use those forwards to quickly get past the 40 and then turn the Novocastrians around. Kick the corners and chase it up, or get Fog to lob towering bombs (preferably those ones that come down 5 metres out from the try-line). The Knights have proven to be tough cookies over recent rounds and they’ll need to be worn down defensively if Canberra wish to score points.

Team list thoughts

The Raiders will field an unchanged 17, with Sticky seeing the benefit of keeping three actual forwards on the bench. Outside of the game day side youngster Ethan Strange has been elevated to the extended bench, a deserved inclusion after his star turn in the U19s Origin game.

Match-ups

Corey Horsburgh vs Adam Elliott

Big Red vs the One that got away. Horse continues to pump out those juicy stats following on from his Origin debut, including a whopping 60 tackles against the Warriors last round. He’ll face off against the man who had his spot last season. Adam Elliott was only in the nation’s capital for a year, but in that time his efforts on the field endeared him to fans, only to be lured to Newcastle by a double package for Millie Boyle and himself. He’s been out injured for a good portion of 2023, but it’s no coincidence that the Knights form coincides with his return.

Predictions

If the Raiders wish to stay in the 8 they need to knuckle down and play some smart footy. Newcastle won’t fold easily and the Raiders need to match them in intensity or run the risk of being muscled out of the game. Strong completion rates are key.

Raiders by their second double digit margin of the season!

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