BY DAN

Arguably the biggest determinant of success in the national rugby league is an elite spine. The great teams always have continuity and brilliance through the fullback, halves, and hooker positions.

Pick your favourite team and its there. Slater, Cronk, Smith. Teddy, Keary/Cronk, Friend. Lockyer, Walters, Langer, Lee (Ok that one doesn’t hold up, but Wayno has always hated dummy halves). Belcher/Mullins, Daley, Stuart, Walters. The best of the the best have always had quality at these positions. Even successful versions in the Stuart regime have shared this charateristic. Charnze, Jack, Sezer/George, Hodgson went to two prelimins and a grand final. Wighton, Austin, Sezer, Hodgson went to a prelim, and while it doesn’t look as good on paper, it’s hard to overstate just how good Josh Hodgson was in 2016.

But in recent seasons that’s been a harder grind for the Milk. The emergence (and submergence) of Xavier Savage and the correlated (though not necessarily caused) departure of Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad has seen flux at the back. George coming and going and Jamal Fogarty’s injury-limited first season played it’s part in the halves. Josh Hodgson’s knees, and Tom Starling’s passing, didn’t hold up as everyone had hoped. The only ‘stable’ part of the spine has been Jack Wighton, who makes mercurial seem like a calm walk along the banks of a slow-moving river, and now he’s leaving.

The fluidity through the one area that needs to be as brilliant and robust as a diamond has no doubt contributed to the havoc that we see on the field every week. It’s not the only determinant (and not even the major one in my view), but I can’t help that perhaps the Raiders might be a more normal footy team if they had a more stable, and normal spine. Alas it seems that will escape us for now.

The cool thing though is that on the horizon is the possibility of stability. And not just stability, but perhaps the dream of something greater. On Thursday night we got to see it in the under 19s State of Origin. Ethan Strange and Chevy Stewart, both in the Canberra system and currently playing NSW Cup footy, proved the hype about them was very real. Strange, who normally plays five-eighth for the Milk, dominated at right centre, showing skill and ball-playing ability that propelled NSW to victory and him to a man-of-the-match performance. It was the best Strange since your dad met your mum. Stewart was less perfect (he had a notable error on a kick clean up that led to a Maroon try) but equally showed that playing against men in recent weeks meant he was well past playing against boys. This is potentially two of the four necessary players for the Raiders spine, already elite among the best of their generation, at home in Canberra.

Also on the field is the potential third part of this spine. Ethan Sanders is not currently a Raider, but the scuttlebutt is that they are very interested in enticing the Parramatta player to the club. On Thursday we got to see why – a brilliant organiser, smart kicker, a agile ball-runner and willing defender, he proved that this very much a halfback, field general, and ‘next great’ that many have already hyped him to be. His left dominant and organisational style would fit well with Strange and Stewart. It’s almost too good to be true. The only problem of course is that he doesn’t play for Canberra.

A minor detail of course. The Raiders are brilliant at securing highly touted players (*sighs in Fifita*). They’re reportedly in the battle with the Panthers: the pitch being ‘come play in Canberra, we don’t have Nathan Cleary blocking your way’. It’s a pretty good pitch – if you want to play first grade, if you want to earn big coin, if you want to breathe the nation’s cleanest air and see it’s most beautiful locales (the blossoms of Spring in the street I grew up on in Lyneham, or maybe you prefer the penis owl) then come. The scuttlebutt has been the departure of Brad Schneider has as much to do with the hope of getting Sanders as it has with any question of Bradley’s ability. With Strange and Stewart already in tow the pitch of quality is also important. Maybe there’s the kind of batch of talent we so rarely get to see. Maybe it’s in Canberra. Maybe.

The final piece of the puzzle is less certain, but importantly Aidan Trevilyan has the talent, as is around the same generation as the other three. He comes with some of the hype, and as we noted last week, hopefully overcome the challenges of the physical adjustment to top line footy through his recent injury layoff. Put these four together, add a dash of Jake Clydesdale (who also proved his quality in Thursday’s origin game), and a splash of the young talent already with the club (here’s a list of Raiders 25 and under: Young, Savage, Cotric, Timoko, Morkos, Hopoate, Kris, Horsburgh, Guler, Mariota, Mooney, Puru, Smith-Shields, Schiller, Trevilyan, Starling) and it’s enough to get you thinking things that smell like hope and sound like the happy post-premiership tears we’ve dreamt about since 1994.

And that’s the thing. As my good friend is prone to remind me every time I get loose on Hopeahol, this isn’t the first time we’ve had good juniors. The 2008 Toyota Cup team was meant to be a generational side, and it produced one (1) Origin player (and one WWE star). I’ve fallen in love with the following players who never were as much as I’d put on them: Mitch Cornish, Michael Dobson, Mick Picker, Joe Picker, Willie Raston, Trevor Schoedel, Travis Waddell. The message is be cool. Act like you’ve been there before.

Most importantly remember people being good at 18 doesn’t mean they’ll be good at 23, let alone relative to the rest of the competition. They develop in fits and starts. All of these players might become what we hope, but even in that unlikely circumstance that doesn’t mean it will happen at the same time, with the same certainty. Already Justin Giteau told the Canberra Times to keep a lid on it, pleading :

Ricky and the coaches have been around footy for so long they’ve seen kids thrown in too quick and haven’t been able to get the best out of them, long term. A lot of people see them as first grade footballers, and we see that too, but it’s also a fine line between throwing them to the wolves, and letting them slowly develop then take their chance when they get it.

Giteau to the Times here

So I wouldn’t be booking accommodation in Sydney for October 2028 just yet. The pathway to mediocrity is paved with hope and weighting what’s in the hand like its made of osmium. But you can’t get to heaven if you don’t build the road, and there’s potential that the Raiders have all the bits here to make the journey.

It should be very exciting to see.

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