BY DAN

For the ninth time this season the Canberra Raiders overcame injury, chaos and their own structural weaknesses to end up on the right side of the points ledger. This time it was 20-18, the victim the Sydney Roosters. It was hard fought, but then it always is. It was desperate because the Raiders don’t know another way. Somehow they keep finding victories. Adversity? The Milk just call it everyday life.

The Raiders can’t keep winning like this but they’ll sure as hell try. Each time they scrounge a victory like this something has to be overcome. This is part of the deal. Circumstance and luck will kick you in the guts but the Raiders have never thought to try and block. They just keep running into the kicks, determined to run through the pain. This week it was Josh Papalii’s injury and the comical imbalance it brought to a team-list that already resembled crazy paving.

Canberra’s success in 2023 has been built on the back of dominance from the middle, and Papa has been a huge part of that. The drop off when he’s off the field is noticeable in most games. In this game he barely got a chance to establish himself in the match before hurting his hamstring. It forced a change to the front-line rotation after ten minutes and the Raiders essentially played the game with one middle off the bench.

This put a huge amount of pressure on Joe Tapine (14 for 144m, 55 post contact), and given the circumstances it’s amazing he delivered. While he was on the field (the first 30, and from the 53rd to the 73rd minute) it seemed Canberra could guarantee to compete in the middle. He was supported by Corey Horsburgh who made 50 odd tackles and was central to any semblance of control of their opposition ruck. That he paired that with near 150m on the ground and 64 straight minutes of exhaustion is a gift. His carries were energetic, and his ability to keep jumping off either foot back through the ruck was important.

But he couldn’t win sets on his own. That’s how it goes when you’re playing near 70 minutes as a prop (and you’re not Payne Haas). Emre Guler (12 for 116m) wasn’t poor moving into Papalii’s role in the first rotation, but the cascading effect was notable. Pasami Saulo was a workhorse being asked to play an impact role and win rucks off dead carries. Tom Starling was playing lock – and it did not look sustainable on either side of the ball. If Tapine wasn’t on the field, the Raiders had to look elsewhere to make up the metres.

Thank Badge god for the efforts of the backs then. Seb Kris (24 for 225, 77 post contact) and Albert Hopoate (23 for 231m, 72 post contact) in particular were asked to do an astounding amount of work. What was more amazing was how they relished it. There were multiple occasions were both took multiple hit-ups in sets. Hopoate in particular was taking the hardest carries – first off a dead ball, careening into the line, doing a job that allowed the rest of the middle the rest they needed to cover for Papalii. This, and Jamal Fogarty’s long kicking game, was a huge reason the Milk were able to cover for the absence. It wasn’t pretty, and in the second half it was just ‘adequate’ rather than ‘success’, but Canberra couldn’t have won without it.

What they cobbled together was sufficient through the middle to play a bit of footy off the back of. Two tries came off the back of Fogarty kicks – one a stunning take by Jack Wighton, and another when Kris knocked the ball back for Matt Timoko to run through the line, almost ignored by the defence like he was panhandling. But both of these kicks came on the back of familiar sets. On both tries they started well in their own area. On both Hopoate, Rapana, Kris took the early runs. Then Joe Tapine built on the back of this, dropped an offload, and the Raiders would drag themselves into position for an attacking kick.

The collective efforts in the middle created enough momentum and space for the Raiders to put together some useful shape and shifts, particularly going left. The Raiders tested the Roosters there, and with less exhaustion (and more competitiveness) through the second stanza they may have had more opportunities here. With a cooler head from Wighton – who made a few overly ambitious decisions – they also may have created more. As it was they only produced one successful movement, a perfect shift in which Woolford and Wighton threw flawless passes, the latter of which put Croker outside his defender. The captain’s ball in contact inside to Hudson Young was so 2016 a celebrity probably died, and Young’s flick to Hopoate was the final touch on proof they can create in the right circumstances.

But they didn’t get many opportunities to in this game. Such was the battle in the middle to simply compete they spent much of the game coming off their own line. On occasion they shifted from their own area, and I wish they’d do it more, if only to give Matt Timoko opportunities that didn’t involve him running at middle defenders. He, Kris, and Croker all made smart decisions in this game as to when to ‘pull up’ on shift movements running out of space. They should be trusted to do it more.

The battle to stay competitive in the middle took a toll, and Canberra tired. While the back three could cover for Papalii’s absence in attack, there was little they could directly do in defence. For the millionth time this season the Raiders’ middle began to fall apart in defence. Two tries came from fatigue errors in the middle of the ground – one where Zac Woolford and Corey Horsburgh were unable to push inside-out on Joey Manu coming back against the grain, and a second when Emre Guler, stationed at ‘B’ defender wasn’t able to get front on with the second attacker. In between the Roosters pack went from being placid observers to powerful tormentors, and the big guys were doing their best to hang on.

The defensive exhaustion was driven by Papalii’s absence, and the workload it put on the remaining forwards. But it’s compounded a feature of the Raiders defence in recent weeks, as the middles are increasingly asked to cover more and more minutes due to Coach Stuart’s reluctance to carry three people that can cover middle minutes on the bench. This week it forced Starling into that role, and it’s no coincidence that the Roosters’ pack roared into life when Canberra were playing Woolford and Starling together. But make no mistake – the problem was created by Stuart before the game. Papalii’s injury just turned the heat up.

While the edges couldn’t directly do the work for their middle brethren, they did an admirable job in tightening up the edge defence and restricting the damage the depleted middle caused. Both centres had excellent defensive games. Croker forced errors from defenders, and generally kept Joey Manu in check. And Hopoate was brilliant in defence, continually making the right read and shutting down plays that could have resulted in points, most obviously in his last ditch effort on Joey Manu. It’s just one data point, but perhaps some problems were solved during the bye. In this game it was enough.

In future games it might not be. Such is the enigma of the 2023 Canberra Raiders. It’s not often that a football team succeeds so consistently in spite of itself but hey, 2023 is dark and hell is hot. Sometimes you beat the other team. Sometimes, when you’re special like this Raiders team, you beat yourselves and the other team. And then when you’re a unicorn of a football team, you beat yourselves, the other team, and your own goddamn coach. A rare trifecta. What a world.

Canberra are succeeding in a rare way. They’ve won four of their last six, eight of ten, and their biggest winning margin is eight points. They’re doing it with courage, idiotic determination and a healthy sprinkle of luck. They’re doing it despite injury, despite their lopsided line-ups and despite the fact they continue to piece together victories like Bluey and Bingo making a romantic meal. Maybe it’s the confidence, maybe its desperation, but the Milk keep finding a way. At some point it might become habit. Just don’t take the phone call from Magic Johnson. He might spit some home truths that undo the majesty of the situation.

So hold on and embrace the fact that every game makes you feel alive, in the same way a coffee and a puke after a big night out do. The cold sweats are just a bonus. The team itself is up for the battle. Let’s hope Stuart gives them the ammunition they need to succeed. In the meantime enjoy these days because the 17 players earned it, even if it was only just enough.

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